伊朗地缘演变路径继续主导短期节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rhythm of the market is dominated by the geopolitical evolution path in Iran. The crude oil market shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, and its short - term trend is determined by the resolution path of the Iranian geopolitical issue. For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical varieties follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment drives up prices. The probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The market's short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iranian issue. It is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period for short - selling opportunities [2][5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term upward structure. After a gap - up opening to repair the overseas market gains, it stands above the 490 pressure level, and the short - term structure turns bullish. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and the small - position 04P440 options held before the holiday can still be retained [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. The cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene. The development path of the Iran issue needs to be monitored [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds with a small increase in positions today, and the short - term pressure above is at the 7850 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle and pay attention to the pressure level [10] Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventories are still high, domestic production rates are rising rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. The cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene. The development path of the Iran issue needs to be monitored [11] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds with a decrease in positions today but fails to break through the short - term pressure at the 6295 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle and pay attention to the pressure level [11] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber market is in the off - season, and there are no major contradictions in the short - term. The Tokyo rubber market and Thai spot prices rose slightly during the holiday. The rise in crude oil drives up synthetic rubber prices, and natural rubber follows suit [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows an upward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support below is at the 16250 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [15] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tire manufacturers is poor, and the fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber is expected to increase. However, the cost is driven up by the geopolitical sentiment transmitted from crude oil to butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. It has a relatively high correlation with crude oil [17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 13220 level (04 contract). Pay attention to short - selling signals after the rebound in the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, polyester terminal production is at a low level, and the slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The cost is driven up by the Iran issue pushing up crude oil [21] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rises with an increase in positions today but remains within the wide range of 7050 - 7500 in the hourly - line. Wait and see at the hourly level [21] PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, terminal production is at a low level, and the slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The cost is driven up by the Iran issue pushing up crude oil [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term upward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today, and the short - term support below is at the 5160 level. Wait and see in the hourly cycle [24] PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. The high supply pressure of olefins remains. The cost disturbance from crude oil becomes the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, olefins will face real - world pressure [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line short - term downward structure is being tested. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 6730 - 6740 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [28] Methanol - Logic: Methanol shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. After the restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring, the expected high import pressure due to the return of Iranian methanol under high port inventories exists. The geopolitical sentiment during the holiday and seasonal de - stocking drive up prices, and the upside space depends on the resolution of the Iranian geopolitical issue [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. It rebounds with an increase in positions today and tests the short - term pressure at the 2285 level. Temporarily wait and see in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [30] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production is reducing, and there is a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. The slow resumption of work before the Lantern Festival suppresses short - term demand. The high inventory and high premium pressure of the 05 contract are difficult to change, and the probability of a downward trend after the delivery regression logic starts is greater [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rises with an increase in positions today and tests the pressure at the 3780 - 3800 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [32] Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. The high supply pressure of olefins remains. The cost disturbance from crude oil becomes the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, olefins will face real - world pressure [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - line shows a downward structure. It rises with a decrease in positions today and tests the pressure at the 6830 level. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and pay attention to whether the pressure level can effectively suppress and whether there are short - selling signals [36] Soda Ash - Logic: New production capacity of soda ash is ramping up during the holiday, bringing higher supply pressure. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the post - holiday replenishment demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - line shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounds after reaching a low point today, and the short - term pressure above is in the 1180 - 1190 range. Hold short positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at the 1190 level [38][40] PVC - Logic: Domestic PVC is mainly produced by the calcium carbide method (80%), with a low correlation with oil. It is in a pattern of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and high inventory. The previous export - tax - rebate - related bullish logic has ended, and it returns to the medium - term oversupply suppression [41] - Technical Analysis: The daily - line shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - line structure is not clear. It rebounds and tests the pressure at the 5040 level today but fails to break through, with a reversal signal at the end. There is an opportunity to try short - selling in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss set at the 5040 level [41]