PVC日报：震荡运行-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream industries after the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has dropped significantly by 165 yuan/ton compared to before the Spring Festival. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, and it continued to increase slightly, being at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. During the Spring Festival, most downstream PVC industries shut down. In terms of exports, after the price increase before the Spring Festival, the domestic export orders decreased month - on - month, but the previous rush to export reduced the sales pressure on enterprises. The FOB price of Formosa Plastics' PVC export shipments in March increased by 40 US dollars/ton compared to February. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and is still relatively high, with large inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production of some enterprises is expected to decrease, but the current output decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. February is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and the spot trading is light after the Spring Festival, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will promote the mercury - free transformation of the PVC industry, and the post - festival export rush is expected to continue. There are also policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival, and the rise in crude oil prices boosts chemical products [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 4835 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5011 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4948 yuan/ton, near the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.59%. The position increased by 56146 lots to 1074411 lots [2] - On February 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4770 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4948 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 178 yuan/ton, strengthening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Shaanxi Jintai and Henan Yuhang, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, and continued to increase slightly, being at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year were all put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion have further declined. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From January to December, the commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. From January to December, the new construction area of housing was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. From January to December, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. From January to December, the completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of February 22, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.37% month - on - month, and the commercial housing transactions were sluggish during the Spring Festival [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of February 20, the PVC social inventory increased by 7.16% month - on - month to 1.3434 million tons, 55.31% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and is still relatively high [6]