塑料日报：震荡上行-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started yet, so continue to shrink the L - PP spread [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On February 24, the restart of overhauled devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE drove the plastic operating rate up to about 93%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, leading to a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PE. The petrochemical early - stage inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival, 20,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and is at a neutral level compared with previous years. The market is worried about the situation in Iran, and the US Energy Information Administration data shows a decrease of 9.014 million barrels in US crude oil inventory and a full - line decline in refined oil inventory, causing a significant increase in overseas crude oil prices [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,707 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,855 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,820 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.08%. The position decreased by 1,960 lots to 482,234 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market mostly rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6,620 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,230 - 8,960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,800 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 24, the restart of overhauled devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE drove the plastic operating rate up to about 93%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, leading to a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [1][4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - stage inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival, 20,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and is at a neutral level compared with previous years [1][4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $71 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $705 per ton on a week - on - week basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685 per ton on a week - on - week basis [4]