养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean price is expected to be supported in the short term, but the post - holiday futures price may have a limited adjustment. The short - term low of corn may fluctuate, but the downward space is limited. Egg prices may fluctuate weakly near the opening price in the short term, and the short - term supply and demand of eggs have no obvious driving force. The short - term oversupply situation of live pigs is difficult to fundamentally change, and the industry is in a key game period of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance [1][2] Summary by Related Content Soybean - During the long holiday, the domestic soybean market was stagnant, and the purchase price of domestic soybeans remained stable. On February 23, the purchase price of 39% protein soybeans in Northeast China was 4180 - 4280 yuan/ton, the same as before the holiday. After the holiday, there is a replenishment demand, which is expected to support the price. However, due to the short - term over - rise of soybean futures before the holiday, there is a negative basis with the spot, and there was an adjustment after the holiday, but the adjustment range is limited [1] Corn - As the Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, the corn market is still in a state of stagnation, but some deep - processing enterprises in some areas have started to resume work and signaled price increases. Most deep - processing enterprises are still cautious, and some plan to reduce prices for purchases after the temperature rises. The short - term low of corn may fluctuate, but the downward space is limited, and it is advisable to consider replenishment or buying on dips [1] Egg - Currently, the inventory of all links has accumulated, and the downstream demand is in the initial stage of recovery. The egg price may fluctuate weakly near the opening price in the short term, and all parties will mainly focus on digesting inventory. The number of laying hens may decline in February, but the absolute value is still high, and the support for prices is limited. The short - term supply and demand have no obvious driving force, and it is regarded as a shock for the time being [2] Live Pig - At the end of January 2026, the national inventory of fertile sows was 39.62 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 0.06%, equivalent to 101.6% of the normal inventory, still at the upper limit of the green control range. The short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change fundamentally. The industry is in a key game period, and the current capacity clearance progress is slow. The growth trend of commercial pig supply is expected to continue until the first half of 2026 [2]