油粕日报：油强粕弱-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the oil and meal sector is cautiously optimistic, with limited downside and the upside potential dependent on policy guidance [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows a trend of strong oil and weak meal. The price of soybean meal remains volatile, and the soybean supply appears sufficient. The soybean meal market needs to focus on the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the state reserve release plan after the Lantern Festival. The supply of imported soybeans in the near - term will determine the near - term market trend. The oil market is affected by factors such as the supply and demand of palm oil and US biofuel policies. The inventory of palm oil in February is expected to decline, but the large original inventory will suppress the short - term rebound height [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Soybean Meal - As of February 21, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 32.3%, up from 24.7% last week, but lower than 36.4% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 36.6%. As of February 20, the 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state had reached 65.75% of the planted area, higher than 51.01% a week ago, slightly lower than 66.16% in the same period last year, but still higher than the past five - year average of 57.25%. The IMEA predicts that the 2025/26 soybean production in this state will be 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high output of the previous year [1] - Although the US soybeans rose significantly during the holiday, the crushing profit was more inclined to US soybean oil, and soybean meal remained volatile. The soybean harvest in Brazil was delayed due to rainfall, but there was no actual yield - reduction effect, and the soybean supply remained sufficient [1] 3.2 Oils - From February 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 23.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 20 was 552,196 tons, a 16.1% decrease from 658,379 tons in the same period last month [2] - The US EPA will submit the final proposed biofuel blending quota to the White House before the weekend, and the White House will complete the review and announce the final result within about 30 days after receiving the proposal, which will meet the self - set deadline of the end of March to complete the renewable energy use targets for 2026 and 2027 [2] - US soybean oil is supported by US biofuel policies and shows a strong trend. The Malaysian palm oil market is in a stage of weak supply and demand during the holiday. It is estimated that the inventory in February will decline again, but the large original inventory will suppress the short - term rebound height. The oil sector needs to focus on the US - Iran negotiations and the implementation of US biofuel policies [2]