沪铜日报：等待下游复产，基本面边际改善预期-20260224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved higher today, with a slight intraday increase. The US customs will stop collecting tariffs on February 24th, while Trump announced a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days. Fundamentally, the upstream smelting load during the holiday was relatively normal. The production in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is estimated to return to normal in February. The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. The downstream factories have not fully resumed production, and the market trading activity is low. The social inventory of copper has accumulated significantly. UBS expects the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy, with two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts expected by the end of September this year. The weakening of the US dollar is expected to boost non - ferrous metals. With the recovery of the downstream, copper demand will increase, and the short - term copper price will mainly fluctuate strongly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, with a slight increase [1][3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 150 yuan/ton. On February 23, 2026, the LME official price was $12,913/ton, and the spot premium was - $81/ton [3]. 3.2. Supply Side - As of February 14, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50.97/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.021 cents/pound [8]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 277,100 tons, an increase of 80,400 tons from the previous period. As of February 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 84,700 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 241,800 tons, an increase of 6,675 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 600,400 short tons, an increase of 1,491 short tons from the previous period [11].