软商品日报：震荡偏强-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the soft commodity industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand structure of US cotton is gradually tightening. Zhengzhou cotton has strong support at the bottom, and the improvement of the subsequent demand side determines whether there is an upward driving force [1] - In the short term, white sugar is still consolidating and oscillating at a low level, waiting for a turnaround after the delivery of the raw sugar 03 contract [3] Summary by Commodity Cotton - In the 2026/27 season, global cotton production is expected to decline by 3% to 116 million bales due to reduced planting area and yield in major cotton - producing countries, while consumption is expected to increase by 1% to 120.1 million bales [1] - After the Spring Festival, cotton prices rose significantly on the first day, supported by the decrease in the new - year planting area. However, attention should be paid to whether there will be frictions in the post - festival demand and trade [1] Sugar - In the second half of January, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 154.39% year - on - year to 609,000 tons, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 16.94% to 6.63%, and the sugar production decreased by 36.31% to 5,000 tons [2] - As of February 14, 2025/26 season in India, 80 sugar mills have shut down, and the cumulative sugar production reached 22.53 million tons, a 13.9% increase year - on - year [2] - As of February 15, 2025/26 season in Thailand, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume decreased by 6.57% to 63.4728 million tons, and the sugar production decreased by 4.83% to 6.8356 million tons [2] - The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, but the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in India, is putting pressure on prices. The 03 contract of the outer - market raw sugar faces a huge delivery of 1.7 million tons [3]