瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - At the end of February, domestic spring plowing will start from south to north, combined with top - dressing of wheat and the gradual resumption of production in industrial downstream, urea will enter the peak demand season, and the post - holiday demand is expected to be good. The downstream urea replenishment rhythm may be faster than in previous years, and compound fertilizer plants' high - nitrogen fertilizer production is gradually starting, increasing the industrial consumption of urea. Urea enterprises are expected to enter a new de - stocking cycle. However, due to the optimistic sentiment before the festival, the center of urea's spot and futures prices has significantly moved up, and the strong performance of the futures has overdrawn part of the post - holiday market. Although the post - holiday agricultural rigid demand release and industrial demand recovery will make the price run stronger, the increase may be limited due to high supply. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1830 - 1880 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1855 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 243,654 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 12,245 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 10,732 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 235 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8,235 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,147 lots [3] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei and Henan are 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong is 1850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price in Anhui is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 405 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 468.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 166,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 834,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 83,800 tons. The urea enterprise's operating rate is 90.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.45%; the daily urea output is 213,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons. The urea export volume is 280,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 320,000 tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 271,170 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 36.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.6%; the operating rate of melamine is 60.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.82%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 204 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5,179,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons [3] Industry News - As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83,800 tons, or 9.12%. As of February 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 166,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, or 0.61%. The overall port inventory fluctuated little this week. As the Spring Festival approached, logistics transportation was restricted, and most industry players were on a steady break. Among them, the large - particle supply at Yantai Port increased slightly, and the rest of the ports had limited fluctuations, resulting in a slight increase in the overall port inventory. As of February 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,493,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,900 tons, or 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 90.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%, and the trend continued to rise. During the cycle, one enterprise's device stopped production, and two stopped devices resumed production. At the same time, following the device changes in the previous cycle, the output increased slightly this week [3] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3]