金货期业弘：节后需求上升，铝价震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The post - holiday demand for aluminum has increased, and aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [2] - Geopolitical factors such as the repeated Iran nuclear negotiations, the potential war risk, and Trump's new tariffs have led to a rise in market panic, causing gold and silver to soar and driving up non - ferrous metals, including aluminum [3] - In the short term, after a sharp decline in aluminum prices, the sentiment in the spot market has warmed up, and the price may continue to oscillate. In the medium term, if copper prices continue to fall, it may drag down aluminum prices [4] Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Today, LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices have all risen. The SHFE aluminum closed at 23,550, and the spot price was 23,390, with a spot discount of - 160 points compared to the futures. This week, SHFE aluminum first rose and then fell, and the spot discount narrowed to - 160 yuan. The spot trading improved slightly today [3] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly. Before the holiday, the spot demand was poor. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot discount was - 28 US dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices increased to 7.66, with the internal and external markets showing generally consistent trends [3] Technical Analysis - Today, the price of US crude oil soared, and LME aluminum rose, trading around 3,116 US dollars. SHFE aluminum also rose, closing at 23,550, with a technical form close to neutral. The trading volume of SHFE aluminum decreased while the open interest increased, and the market sentiment was slightly bullish [4] Data Monitoring | Date | LME Aluminum - Spot - Futures Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | February 10 | 6.9134 | - 200 | - 34 | 7.58 | | February 11 | 6.9088 | - 190 | - 33 | 7.62 | | February 12 | 6.8989 | - 160 | - 32 | 7.57 | | February 13 | 6.9007 | - 120 | - 35 | 7.51 | | February 24 | 6.8912 | - 160 | - 28 | 7.66 | [5]