乙二醇日报：利润承压库存累积，乙二醇延续宽松格局-20260224

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased from 3,935.0 yuan/ton on February 12, 2026, to 3,899.0 yuan/ton on February 13, 2026, a drop of 36.0 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,605.0 yuan/ton to 3,560.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton or 1.25%. The basis (spot minus futures) was -339 yuan/ton, with the negative value deepening, indicating an expanding discount of the spot market relative to the futures [1]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 437,707 lots to 430,898 lots, a reduction of 6,809 lots or 1.56%. The trading volume declined from 200,272 lots to 189,398 lots, a decrease of 10,874 lots or 5.43%. Both open interest and trading volume decreased, suggesting a weakening short - term speculative sentiment and an increase in market wait - and - see atmosphere [1]. *** Analysis of Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate at 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate at 58.64%, showing no changes. However, the profits from oil - based, coal - based, and natural - gas - based production all declined significantly. For example, the profit from ethylene - SD oxidation method dropped from - 755.0 yuan/ton to - 950.7 yuan/ton, the coal - based profit decreased from - 50.53 yuan/ton to - 130.13 yuan/ton, and the natural - gas - based profit fell from 350.0 yuan/ton to 280.0 yuan/ton. Despite the profit decline, the operating rate remained unchanged, indicating a rigid supply [1]. - Demand Side: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no changes. This indicates that the terminal demand is stable but has not improved. With the high - level stability of polyester and loom loads, the demand side provides limited support and does not drive up prices [2]. - Inventory Side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 897,000 tons to 935,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory increased, reflecting an increase in arriving goods or insufficient shipments. The supply - demand pattern remains loose [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The price of ethylene glycol is likely to continue to face pressure, with a possible low - level oscillation or further decline. The reasons are as follows: The profits of ethylene glycol production have been compressed, and all types of production methods have seen a decline in profits, which may be due to rising raw material costs or falling product prices. Although there is no direct data on the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, the profit decline implies that costs may have increased or product prices have decreased. The downstream demand remains stable, but the supply is rigid, and the port inventory has increased, putting greater pressure on the market [31][34].