尿素日报：假期印标刺激，价格上行-20260224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The urea price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend as the downstream gradually resumes work and agricultural dealers actively purchase goods. However, the price increase is limited due to the supply - guarantee and price - stabilization measures during the spring plowing season [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened high and moved higher on February 24, 2026. The spot market quotes showed an upward trend, and the shipment was relatively smooth. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton, about 20 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday. The Indian tender during the holiday supported the domestic market sentiment, although the import tender volume of about 1.29 million tons was lower than the target of 1.5 million tons [1][5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1856 yuan/ton, closed at 1855 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.42%. The trading volume was 243,654 lots, an increase of 12,245 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 5,723 lots, and short positions increased by 9,510 lots. On February 24, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,235, a decrease of 2,625 compared to the previous trading day [2] - Spot: The spot market quotes showed an upward trend, and the shipment was relatively smooth. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton, about 20 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday [5] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: On February 24, 2026, the national daily urea output was 218,200 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.45% [9] - Downstream: From February 14 to February 20, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.5%, a decrease of 11.69 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.17%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [10]