螺纹日报：增仓下跌-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the first trading day after the Spring Festival, rebar significantly increased positions, expanded volume, and declined, hitting a new low in nearly 7 months. The daily line is under short - term pressure from the 5 - day moving average and medium - term pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The technical aspect shows a bearish trend, and there is no sign of a stop - fall yet. The current fundamentals are dominated by weak reality, with certain expectations of policy easing. The decline of coking coal and iron ore is relatively large, and the cost support weakens. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery and the evolution of supply and demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Tuesday, the holding volume of the rebar main contract increased by 92,067 lots. The trading volume expanded compared with the previous trading day, reaching 746,349 lots. The daily moving average broke through the short - term 5 - day moving average, the medium - term 30 - day moving average, and the 60 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,005 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,060 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton, or a decline of 0.88% [1] - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 183 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: Before the festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from a high level. In the week of February 13, 2026, the rebar output was 1.6916 million tons, a decrease of 0.2252 million tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to the concentrated maintenance of electric - arc furnace steel mills. Long - process steel mills still maintained a relatively high operating rate, but the overall supply pressure was alleviated compared with the peak in January [3] - Demand side: The terminal demand shrank significantly seasonally. In early February, the average daily trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders dropped to about 28,000 tons, a decrease of more than 20% month - on - month. The apparent consumption declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping to about 1.476 million tons in the week of February 13, the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The new construction of real estate and the arrival of infrastructure funds were still weak, and the market was "priced but without trading" before the festival [3] - Inventory side: The inventory accumulation accelerated, and the pressure was significant. As of February 13, 2026, the social inventory of rebar reached 4.2323 million tons, an increase of 0.5731 million tons week - on - week; the steel mill inventory increased by 0.0994 million tons to 1.6359 million tons; the total inventory reached 5.8682 million tons, at a high level in the same period in recent years. Compared with the same period in history, although the inventory accumulation speed was slower than the average from 2022 - 2024, the absolute level was still high, and the inventory de - stocking pressure was significant, which became the core factor suppressing the price [3] Cost and profit - The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills was maintained in the range of 38% - 40%. The profit could support blast furnace production, but pressure appeared on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [4] Macroeconomic aspect - In 2026, the policy expectations at the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. The central budgetary investment, underground pipeline network, urban renewal and other projects were advanced, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff increase on imported goods by the United States, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The absolute level of inventory is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand continues to be sluggish, the cost support weakens, the inventory continues to accumulate, the de - stocking speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5]