PP日报：震荡上行-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - PP prices are expected to move up in a volatile manner. The PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to reverse the involution. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, and the centralized demand for plastic film not yet starting, continue to shrink the L - PP price spread [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 20th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 11.78 percentage points to 30% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, leading to a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PP. On February 24th, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the second phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to about 31%. During the Spring Festival, the early inventory of petrochemicals increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and basically the same as in previous years. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, the market is worried about the situation in Iran. The data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 9.014 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory declined across the board. Overseas crude oil prices rose significantly [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,693 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.51%. The position decreased by 1,731 lots to 486,837 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn wire was reported at 6,310 - 6,850 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 24th, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the second phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to about 31% [6] - Demand: As of the week of February 20th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 11.78 percentage points to 30% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, leading to a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PP [6] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, the early inventory of petrochemicals increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and basically the same as in previous years. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [6] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $71 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $835 per ton on a week - on - week basis [6]