证券研究报告、晨会聚焦：固收吕品：节后还会延续修复吗？-20260224

Core Insights - The bond market has unexpectedly shown a recovery trend over the past month, with the 10-year yield dropping below 1.8% and the TL surpassing the key resistance level of 112.8 [3] - Since the beginning of the year, most bond varieties have declined by over 10 basis points from their early January highs, with the 5-year and 7-year government bond yields decreasing by 14 basis points and 13 basis points respectively, and the 7-year and 10-year yields dropping by over 20 basis points [3] - The report indicates that the recovery is supported by several factors, including low volatility in T6 and a favorable configuration for bonds with maturities under 10 years, which tests the short sellers' mentality [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The bond market has experienced a significant recovery, with the 10-year yield declining from a high of 1.9% to 1.79%, a drop of 11 basis points [5] - Fund subscriptions have been strong, with a notable increase in purchases of 7-10 year government bonds amounting to 560 billion and 3-5 year bonds totaling 352 billion, indicating a robust buying interest before the holiday [5][6] Institutional Behavior - Institutions have shown a strong willingness to hold bonds over the holiday, with a notable increase in bond fund subscriptions [5] - The report highlights that the borrowing cost for T6 has increased to an annualized rate of approximately 1.45%, which may affect the psychological perception of interest rate increases [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the bond market will continue to recover post-holiday, with the 10-year yield expected to stabilize around 1.75% and the 30-year yield at 2.15% [7] - The impact of tariff changes on the bond market sentiment is expected to be limited, as the market has become desensitized to minor adjustments in tariffs [6]