Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-24 12:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and a reduction in imports, which is expected to support coal prices in the near future [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42%, indicating strong demand [1]. - The report suggests that the current coal prices are under less pressure for significant declines due to lower port inventories compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines to improve the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [5]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, particularly in Henan province, focusing on intelligent mining and accident prevention [5]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting no significant changes [6][8]. - The report indicates that international thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [7]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 5.92% to $71.76 per barrel as of February 20, 2026, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [12]. 4. Bohai Rim Port Inventory - Coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.96% week-on-week, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026 [17]. - The report notes a significant increase in both coal inflow and outflow at these ports, indicating a robust market activity [17]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, averaging 26.78 RMB/ton as of February 13, 2026 [24]. - International freight rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others decreased [24]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and expected earnings per share (EPS) [29].