贵金属日报-20260224

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Spring Festival, precious metals showed strong performance. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the government's large - scale tariff policy illegal, but Trump will maintain trade pressure in other ways. The U.S. - Iran negotiation has no substantial progress, and Trump said the time window for reaching an agreement is at most 10 - 15 days. There are reports that the U.S. may launch a preliminary strike against Iran in the next few days. In the short - term risk event's critical node, the strength of precious metals may continue waiting for the further development of the situation [2] - The continuous rebound of the U.S. dollar may curb the rebound space of precious metals. The large fluctuations of silver mainly reflect the two - way swing of volatility without a clear and strong logical drive. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock before the Iran issue is settled and a weak - side shock after that. The Fed will continue to observe U.S. economic data, especially non - farm and inflation data and relevant Fed officials' comments [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Macroeconomic and Market Conditions - The macro - situation during the festival drove up gold and silver prices, and the investment premium space for platinum and palladium reopened. The expected output of Norilsk, the world's major palladium supplier, in 2026 is down 11% year - on - year, and the palladium fundamentals are improving. After the festival, platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened higher and fluctuated, but the market is waiting for non - farm data to judge the Fed's interest - rate cut trend, with cautious capital entry and limited position increase on the market [3] Geopolitical Situation - The risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is rising at an unprecedented speed. The Pentagon warned Trump that a long - term military action against Iran would bring inestimable risks. The U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of non - essential personnel and their families from the U.S. embassy in Beirut. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said its forces could sink U.S. warships, making the war cloud over the Persian Gulf thicker [3] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the medium - term upward trend of platinum and palladium in the outer market has not been falsified, but the rebound is temporarily under pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The short - term direction is not clear, and it is advisable to wait and see for a clearer situation [3]