美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题：美国 2026 年牛价景气预计维持，基于南美丰产再上调全球大豆期末库存-20260224

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][7] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with specific commodities showing signs of price stabilization and potential upward trends [1][3][4] - The USDA's February supply and demand report indicates adjustments in global inventory levels for various crops, impacting market dynamics [1][2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production is forecasted to decrease by 1 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, with a reduction in ending stocks ratio by 0.17 percentage points to 22.21% [14][15] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.56% and a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [17] Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a 2.5 million ton increase in global soybean production, with ending stocks rising by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.55% [33][34] - Domestic soybean meal prices are showing strong support, with expectations for Brazilian soybean supply to increase post-March 2026 [35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to decrease by 370,000 tons, with ending stocks ratio down by 0.10 percentage points to 33.68% [47][48] - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2531 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.78% [50] Sugar - The market anticipates a stable supply of sugar due to favorable weather conditions, with prices expected to remain weak [2][4] Cotton - Global cotton production is projected to decline, while demand is expected to rise, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance [2][4] Beef - The report forecasts a stable upward trend in U.S. beef prices, with a projected decrease in production for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic beef prices are expected to stabilize due to reduced supply and increased demand [3] Dairy - U.S. milk ending stocks are slightly adjusted upwards, with expectations for domestic milk prices to rise due to supply constraints [3][4] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase slightly, with prices anticipated to remain high [4][6] Poultry - The U.S. chicken market is expected to recover, with domestic demand supporting price stabilization [6][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in livestock, pork, poultry, and feed sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][7]