2026年公募REITs市场2月半月报:市场缩量回调,商业不动产再添四单-20260224
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-24 13:05
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of February 2026, the REITs market experienced a decline in trading volume and a price correction. The energy and transportation sectors were the only two to achieve positive returns, while the utility sector had the largest decline. The spread between REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond widened, and the valuation of both property and concession - based REITs generally decreased, although still at relatively high historical levels [4]. - The offline new - share subscription income recovered. Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT rose 28% on its first trading day, bringing a good start to the primary market in 2026 [4]. - In terms of queuing projects, Beijing Changbao REIT responded to the first - round feedback, and two infrastructure REITs received inquiry letters. Four new commercial real - estate REITs were accepted in the first half of February [4]. - Nanfang Runze IDC plans to conduct an expansion, and four projects will be解禁 in late February and early March [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - holiday Trading Volume Declined and the Spread between REITs and Treasury Bonds Widened - Market Performance: In the first half of February 2026, the A - share market was sluggish. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.5%, and its daily average turnover rate dropped to the lowest level in the past six months. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield continued to decline, reaching 1.79% as of February 13 [9]. - Sector Performance: The energy sector led the gain (+1.29%) due to the policy of "building a unified power market" and the listing of the first energy REIT in the new year. The transportation sector had a seasonal recovery (+0.24%) driven by Spring Festival travel demand. The utility sector had the largest decline (-1.13%), and the declines of other sectors were within 1% [14]. - Individual Bond Performance: Sinotrans Warehouse REIT led the gain (+3.71%), and Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate REIT followed (+3.12%) after the expansion announcement. Huaxia Jinyu Zhizao Gongchang REIT had the largest decline (-4.68%) due to the impact of the restricted - share lifting [18]. - Dividend Yield and Spread: As of February 13, the dividend yield of concession - based REITs was 8.56% (79% quantile), and that of property - based REITs was 4.51% (55% quantile). The spread between property - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield widened to 2.71% (66% quantile), with the consumption - type REITs showing the most significant recovery [24][33]. - Valuation and IRR: The P/NAV of property - based REITs was 1.27X (82% quantile), and the P/FFO of concession - based REITs was 13.28X (51% quantile). The IRRs of both property - based and concession - based REITs increased compared to the previous period, reaching 3.8% and 5.0% respectively [42][48]. 3.2 Offline New - Share Subscription Income Recovered, and Zhonghe Energy Rose 28% on Its First Day - Issuance Situation: As of February 13, 2026, there were 79 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 229.6 billion yuan. There was no new issuance in the first half of February, and Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT was listed on February 2 [50]. - First - day Performance: Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT rose 28.2% on its first trading day, and its cumulative increase in the first four days was 26.3% [55]. - New - share Subscription Income: After two consecutive losses in offline new - share subscriptions, the subscription of Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT brought positive returns. The offline cash accounts of 10 million yuan, 30 million yuan, and 100 million yuan achieved returns of 0.83 million yuan, 2.48 million yuan, and 8.27 million yuan respectively, with a subscription yield of 0.08% for funds below 100 million yuan [57]. 3.3 Beijing Changbao Responded to the First - Round Feedback, and Four New Commercial Real - estate Projects Were Added - Infrastructure REITs: There are currently 11 infrastructure REITs in the pipeline for initial issuance and 2 for expansion. Beijing Changbao REIT responded to the first - round feedback, with its total valuation decreased by 3.19% to 820 million yuan. Boshi Shandong Tietou Road and Bridge REIT and Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT received inquiry letters [63][64]. - Commercial Real - estate REITs: As of February 13, 2026, there were 12 commercial real - estate REITs in the pipeline for initial issuance, with an average planned fundraising amount of 3.476 billion yuan. Four new projects were accepted in the first half of February [69]. 3.4 Nanfang Runze IDC Plans to Conduct an Expansion, and Four Projects Will Be解禁 Soon - Expansion Plan: Nanfang Runze Data Center REIT announced an expansion plan to purchase the A - 7 and A - 8 data centers of Runze (Langfang) International Information Port [86]. - Restricted - share Lifting: Four projects, including Guotai Haitong Jinan Heating REIT, Huaxia Jinyu Zhizao Gongchang REIT, Huitianfu Jiuzhoutong Medicine REIT, and Guotai Haitong Lingang Industrial Park REIT, will have their restricted shares lifted from late February to early March [86].