宏观消息影响，铜价震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the repeated Iran nuclear negotiations and the risk of war, along with the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs and the re - imposition of 15% general tariffs, market panic has risen. Gold and silver have soared, driving all non - ferrous metals, including copper, to strengthen. Copper prices are oscillating with an upward bias in the short - term, and may continue to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [3][4] - Although the post - holiday spot market sentiment has warmed up, there are uncertainties in the Fed's policy after the confirmation of the successor chairman, and the uncertainty of AI demand is high, so the upward momentum of copper prices is limited [4] Summary by Related Contents Market Influencing Factors - Geopolitical factors such as the repeated Iran nuclear negotiations and war risks, along with trade policies like Trump's re - imposition of 15% general tariffs, have increased market panic, driving up gold, silver, and non - ferrous metals [3] Price and Premium - Today, LME copper is trading around $13,100, and SHFE copper closed at 101,510. The spot copper price in China has increased. The spot is at a premium of 460 points over the futures, and the spot basis is at a premium of 250 points [3][4] - The LME spot discount has widened to -$84, indicating insufficient external spot demand. The Yangshan copper premium has dropped to $33, suggesting poor domestic spot demand around the Spring Festival [3] - The LME - SHFE copper ratio has risen to 7.83, and the premium of international copper over SHFE copper has significantly dropped to 247 points, with the external ratio slightly higher than the internal one [3] Inventory - This week, the US copper inventory has continued to rise to a new high, the LME copper inventory has risen significantly, and the SHFE copper inventory has also increased, indicating poor pre - holiday spot demand [3] Market Sentiment and Trading - SHFE copper trading volume has decreased while positions have increased significantly. The post - holiday market sentiment is optimistic. The domestic spot demand has improved, but the LME copper spot demand is poor, and the US copper buying has declined [4]