春节假期综述：海外波动难撼债市修复趋势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The repair trend of the domestic bond market before the Spring Festival is difficult to be shaken by overseas fluctuations, and it is expected to continue the strong - oscillating trend from after the festival to before the Two Sessions. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage and seize the opportunity of long - term interest rate repair [2][49] - Although overseas risk preference changes may cause certain disturbances to the bond market, they will not change the overall market trend [4] - If the 10 - year Treasury bond can stabilize below 1.8%, the supplementary rise market of 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year policy financial bonds is still worth looking forward to [3][30] - The peak of government bond supply in Q1 may have passed [4][39] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic bond market continued to repair, with most credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads converging. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through 1.8% and finally stabilized around 1.78%, and the long - term secondary - tier perpetual bonds declined more [2][14] - Since mid - January, the continuous net purchase of long - term bonds by large banks has been an important factor in the bond market repair. In January, the new credit of large and small and medium - sized banks was lower than the same period last year, but the deposit growth rate increased, especially for large banks. Large banks increased their bond investment, especially long - term bonds, which is a rare phenomenon [2][15][21] - The Q4 monetary policy report shows that the central bank's demand for stable growth has increased, and its concern about the side effects of easing has weakened. It is expected that the central bank will maintain a loose liquidity environment and increase the purchase of Treasury bonds [3][27] 3.2 Overseas Key Events 3.2.1 US IEEPA Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs implemented under IEEPA were unconstitutional. Trump announced a 10% tariff on almost all US imports under Article 122, which was later raised to 15%. The new tariff adjustment will change the actual tax rates of some economies, and Trump hopes that trading partners will continue to fulfill their commitments [53][54] - After the tariff ruling, the market showed a combination of rising gold prices, rebounding US stocks, falling US dollars, and slightly rising US bond yields. However, this may be a short - term reaction, and the increase in global risk appetite may not last long [57] 3.2.2 The Second Round of Negotiations between the US and Iran Reached a Consensus, but the Military Confrontation Continued to Escalate - On February 17, the second - round negotiations between the US and Iran reached a consensus on the procedure and framework, but there were still differences on issues such as uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, and regional agents. The two sides agreed to start the third - round negotiations on February 26 [58] - Meanwhile, the military confrontation between the two sides continued to escalate. Trump issued an ultimatum, and the US assembled a large - scale air force in the Middle East. Iran conducted live - fire exercises and partially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a significant increase in oil prices during the Spring Festival. However, these military threats may be extreme pressure before the next round of negotiations, and the final result remains to be seen [59][62] 3.3 Domestic Long - Holiday Data - Due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel willingness increased. The cross - regional passenger flow during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season increased by 5.5%, and the passenger flow has reached a record high for three consecutive days since the 19th. The travel volume of various transportation modes has increased to varying degrees [63] - The increase in travel willingness has improved consumption activities. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% in the first four days of the holiday, and the turnover of 78 business districts increased by 4.8%. However, the per - capita consumption amount in Hainan's duty - free shopping decreased, indicating that residents' consumption ability is still restricted [71] - The box office of the 2026 Spring Festival film season was at a low level in recent years, which may be related to the increase in travel demand and the lack of high - profile films. The price of Feitian Moutai was relatively stable during the Spring Festival [72][75] 3.4 Overseas Data - The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers. Most participants believed that the downward risk of the labor market had eased, but inflation was more persistent, and some even discussed the possibility of raising interest rates. The market's neutral expectation for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026 remains at 2 times [77] - Affected by the US government shutdown, the GDP growth rate in Q4 of 2025 was lower than expected, but the impact may be short - term, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 of 2026 is expected to rebound technically [77][79] - Japan's core CPI in January fell to 2%, but the CPI excluding fresh food and fuel was still above the target. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the middle of the year [81] - The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan rebounded, while that in the US declined. The service PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan increased slightly, while those in the US and the UK decreased slightly [83][85] 3.5 Major Asset Classes - Stock Market: During the Spring Festival, US stocks rose slightly, South Korean and European stocks strengthened, the Japanese stock market oscillated, and the Hang Seng Index recovered its previous losses on Monday after adjusting on Friday [87] - Bond Market: During the Spring Festival, the US bond interest rate rose slightly, the bond yields in the Eurozone declined overall, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond interest rate declined significantly due to the significant decline in inflation in January [92] - Exchange Rate: During the Spring Festival, the US dollar index rebounded, the Australian dollar was strong, the offshore RMB and the South Korean won maintained resilience, and most developed - economy currencies depreciated against the US dollar [99] - Commodities: The conflict between the US and Iran and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories led to an increase in oil prices. Precious metals were linked to risk assets and rose significantly after the IEEPA was ruled unconstitutional on Friday [104]