节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势：农林牧渔

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [4][69]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the post-holiday season is leading to a decline in pig prices, with prices dropping to 11.26 CNY/kg as of February 23, a decrease of 0.4 CNY/kg from February 13 [2][9]. - The report anticipates a continued weak trend in pig prices due to seasonal consumption declines and suggests that the supply pressure will persist into early 2026, with a potential increase in prices in the long term as production capacity is regulated [2][27]. - The beef market is stable with prices for fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg and calves at 33.81 CNY/kg, indicating a long-term upward trend in prices due to tightening supply [3][30]. - The poultry sector shows mixed signals, with broiler prices stable at 7.48 CNY/kg and chick prices rising to 3.5 CNY each, driven by limited supply post-holiday [3][37]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - Post-holiday pig prices are declining, with a significant drop in slaughter volumes, down 64% from February 13 to 9.20 million heads per day [2][12]. - The average weight of pigs is decreasing seasonally, with the industry average at 126.05 kg, down 1.35 kg week-on-week [2][18]. - The report suggests monitoring the impact of secondary fattening and frozen product inventory on price support [2][27]. Cattle Industry - The beef market is stable, with prices for fattened bulls and calves remaining unchanged during the holiday period, indicating a gradual recovery in trading volumes [3][30]. - Long-term expectations indicate a tightening supply due to the reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to higher beef prices in 2026-2027 [3][30]. Poultry Industry - Broiler prices are stable, while chick prices have increased due to limited supply following the holiday [3][37]. - Egg prices are under pressure, with an average wholesale price of 7.93 CNY/kg, down 0.38 CNY/kg from the previous period, but there is potential for recovery as supply tightens [3][43]. Seed Industry - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to enhance agricultural productivity and benefit leading seed companies [3][51].