韩国科技_2026 年 2 月高盛 DRAM 情绪指标_短期 DRAM 合约定价预期持续改善-South Korea Technology_ Feb. 2026 GS DRAM sentiment indicator_ Near-term DRAM contract pricing expectations continue to improve

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SK Hynix Inc. with a target price of W1,200,000 and for Samsung Electronics with a target price of W205,000 [48][60]. Core Insights - The DRAM sentiment indicator for February 2026 is showing a moderately positive trend, consistent with January's outlook, driven by improving contract pricing expectations and strong revenue growth in the sector [1][7]. - Notable revenue increases include Nanya Tech's revenue growth of 608% year-over-year (yoy) and Korea's DRAM exports rising by 167% yoy in January, indicating robust demand and pricing power in the market [1][10][11]. - The report highlights a slowdown in spot pricing growth for DDR5 (+2%) and DDR4 (+1%) in February, but both remain significantly above January contract pricing, suggesting potential for future contract price increases [8][22]. Summary by Relevant Sections DRAM Pricing Trends - DRAM spot pricing for DDR5 and DDR4 has slowed but remains at a premium of 34% and 132% over January contract pricing, respectively, indicating strong pricing power [8][22]. - The second derivative of industry DRAM average selling price (ASP) is estimated to grow by 29% in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a positive pricing outlook [12][33]. Revenue Trends - Server ODM monthly revenue increased by 91% yoy in January, driven by strong demand for AI server shipments, while Aspeed's revenue rose by 28% yoy [9][23]. - Nanya Tech's revenue growth of 608% yoy in January marks six consecutive months of triple-digit growth, primarily due to strong DDR4 pricing [11][32]. - Supreme Electronics also reported a 73% yoy revenue increase in January, further indicating a positive trend in the sector [30]. Market Demand Insights - Korea's DRAM exports showed a significant increase of 167% yoy in January, attributed to rising memory prices and strong demand for server-related products [10][26]. - In contrast, China's smartphone shipments decreased by 29% yoy in December, suggesting potential headwinds in consumer electronics demand, although server-related demand remains strong [10][28]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates continued tight supply/demand dynamics for both DRAM and HBM, with expectations for pricing improvements in the first and second quarters of 2026 [15]. - Customers are increasingly seeking long-term agreements to secure volume, indicating a shift in negotiation dynamics favoring suppliers [15].