大消费渠道脉搏：泡泡玛特和毛戈平26年同店持续强劲增长，新秀丽26年初回升明显

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies mentioned. Core Insights - The overall retail market performance during the 2026 Spring Festival was tepid, with declining foot traffic and lower ticket sizes being the main drags [2][8] - The trendy toy sector, particularly POP MART, continues to show strong growth driven by IP operation capabilities and member stickiness, with an expected annual growth of over 25% [3][9] - The cosmetics category saw slight overall growth, with foreign brands like Dior and MAC recording around 10% growth, while domestic brand MAOGEPING maintained high double-digit growth [4][10] - The F&B sector exhibited a K-shaped divergence, with full-service restaurants facing pressure on average ticket prices, while fast food performed relatively steadily [5][11] - Apparel sales remained flat overall, with growth slowing for both sportswear and local designer brands, primarily driven by pre-festival consumption [6][12] - Luggage brands showed channel divergence, with full-price stores under pressure while outlet channels grew, and gold/jewelry sales increased due to rising gold prices [6][13] Summary by Sections Retail Market Performance - The retail market during the Spring Festival was underwhelming, with foot traffic declining year-on-year for five out of the first six days [2][8] - The increase in consumers traveling out of town contributed to the decline in foot traffic in business districts [2][8] Trendy Toy Sector - POP MART experienced robust growth, with a notable 40% year-on-year increase in 1Q25 due to the popularity of the Labubu IP, although growth narrowed to around 5% during the Spring Festival [3][9] - TOP TOY also saw considerable growth but is expected to have a lower growth rate in 2026 compared to POP MART [3][9] Cosmetics Sector - International brands like Dior and MAC achieved stable growth of around 10%, while MAOGEPING maintained an 18% year-on-year increase in January, with expectations of reaching a 20% growth target for the year [4][10] Food and Beverage Sector - Full-service restaurants faced a decline in average ticket prices by approximately 5-15%, while fast food chains recorded slight growth, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards value [5][11] Apparel Sector - Overall apparel sales were flat, with growth primarily driven by pre-festival consumption, and local designer brands showing slightly better performance than sportswear [6][12] Luggage and Jewelry Sector - Samsonite's sales increased by about 15% year-on-year in early 2026, driven by travel demand, while gold and jewelry sales benefited from rising gold prices, with some domestic brands achieving over 10% growth [6][13]