新能源观点：供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand expectations of new energy metals are diverging, with lithium carbonate leading the rise. In the medium and short term, the long - term supply and demand expectations of new energy metals are different, and the price trends are diverging, with lithium carbonate being relatively strong. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract strongly, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise; the lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - View: Supply and demand are both weak, and the silicon price continues to fluctuate [3][6] - Information Analysis: - As of February 24, the prices of different grades of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are as follows: 553 Xinjiang is 8700 yuan/ton, 553 Yunnan is 9400 yuan/ton; 421 Xinjiang is 8950 yuan/ton, 421 Yunnan is 9850 yuan/ton [6] - As of February 13, the domestic inventory is 425,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; among them, the market inventory is 187,000 tons, with a month - on - month flat; the factory inventory is 238,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% [6] - In January, the industrial silicon output was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.1%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [6] - In December, the industrial silicon export volume was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [6] - Main Logic: On the supply side, the start - up in the southwest dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. A large factory in the northwest reduced production at the end of January and has not resumed production yet, so the short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, in the long term, the start - up of silicon factories in the northwest is expected to resume, and the start - up in the southwest will also increase during the wet season, so the long - term over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists. On the demand side, the inventory consumption pressure of polysilicon is large, some silicon material factories have further shut down for maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon continues to be weak; the production reduction and price support plan of silicone enterprises continues, and the demand for industrial silicon is also relatively weak; the demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry remains stable. Overall, after the large factory reduced production, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon improved slightly around the Spring Festival, but in the medium and long term, the silicon price is still under pressure, and the industry over - supply pressure still exists [6] - Outlook: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the current market sentiment is fluctuating. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6] Polysilicon - View: The inventory continues to accumulate, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure [3][6] - Information Analysis: - On February 24, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 57.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/kg [6] - On February 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8700 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 110 lots [6] - In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [6] - Main Logic: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest has gradually reduced, and the current polysilicon output is at a low level, and it is expected to continue to shrink. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, and the polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the weak demand drags down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply may continue to shrink, the supply - demand of polysilicon is expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation trend [6][8] - Outlook: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still shrinking, the polysilicon price is expected to show a wide - range fluctuation trend [8] Lithium Carbonate - View: The expiration of the IEEPA tariff triggers the expectation of rush - export, and the lithium carbonate price soars at the opening [3][8] - Information Analysis: - On February 24, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 7.52% to 164,120 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 32,954 lots to 674,404 lots [8] - On February 24, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 154,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9250 yuan/ton; the morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 150,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 154,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9250 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts on that day increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots [9] - Main Logic: Currently, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, and the capital sentiment has a great impact on the price. From January to February, the supply remains relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production reduction, the overall supply is at a high level; at the same time, the demand performance is good, and downstream enterprises are active in stocking after the price correction. It is expected that the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance from January to February, and the social inventory has decreased. After the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides have recovered, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues. At the same time, the repair of capital sentiment also brings upward driving force. In the short term, the current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and after the Spring Festival, the capital sentiment is repaired, and the peak demand season is coming again. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly [9] - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [9] Market Monitoring - Comprehensive Index: - The commodity 20 index is 2766.04, with an increase of 2.23% - The industrial product index is 2300.06, with an increase of 1.14% - The PPI commodity index is 1405.49, with an increase of 0.67% [46] - Sector Index: - The new energy commodity index on February 24, 2026 is 538.23, with a daily increase of 3.69%, a 5 - day increase of 7.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.08%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.60% [47]