贵属策略日报：?价?位回落，?银震荡偏强-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, and the long - term upward support logic remains unchanged [2] - Silver is expected to gradually shift to a volatile and slightly stronger trend after price stabilization, and the long - term bullish support is still strong [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Gold - During the Spring Festival holiday, the external precious metals rebounded after low - level oscillations, supported by factors such as the differentiation of US economic data, the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and changes in US tariff policies. The intraday COMEX gold price fell by nearly 1% after reaching a high, ending the previous four - day consecutive rise, due to factors such as partial profit - taking by investors and a slight rebound in the US dollar index [1] - The short - term gold price is supported by the uncertainty of US tariffs, the repetition of US - Iran negotiations, and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. However, there are also suppressions, such as the differentiation of US economic data and the postponement of the Fed's first rate - cut expectation this year. Key events to focus on include the US - Iran Geneva negotiation on the 26th, the release of January PPI data on the 27th, next week's non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US interactions [2] Silver - The intraday COMEX silver showed a "V - shaped" volatile trend with a gain of over 1%, and SHFE silver also showed a volatile and slightly stronger operation. The macro - driving factors of silver are consistent with those of gold. The impact of tariff policy changes is generally positive, while the postponement of the Fed's rate cut and the possibility of a US visit to China suppress the price. The spot - end driving factors of silver are still positive, with the risk of spot tightness in March remaining. Key events to focus on include the fermentation of spot tightness in March [3] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on February 24, 2026 includes special indices such as the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index, with corresponding increases of 1.86%, 2.23%, 1.14%, and 0.67% respectively [45] - The precious metals index on February 24, 2026 had a daily increase of 6.03%, a 5 - day increase of 3.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.64% [46]