Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-25 00:49Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the production and sales of the four major iron ore mines remained at a high level. Vale had a significant year-on-year increase, Rio Tinto's production returned to a high range after recovering from the weather impact in Q1, FMG's shipments increased steadily, and BHP improved quarter-on-quarter. The overall supply rhythm was stronger than that in Q3 [1]. - In terms of production in Q4, Rio Tinto and BHP increased quarter-on-quarter, Vale maintained a high level, and FMG declined slightly. For the whole year of 2025, Vale and FMG contributed the main increments. In terms of sales, Rio Tinto's annual shipments were lower than the mid - point of the guidance target range due to the weather impact in Q1. In 2025, the sales of Vale and FMG increased year-on-year, and BHP maintained a stable release rhythm [2]. - Despite the weather disturbances in Q1, the four major mines achieved overall production and sales growth in 2025 thanks to the strong recovery in the following three quarters. It is expected that the total production of the four major mines will continue to grow in 2026 [2]. Summary by Company Rio Tinto - In Q4 2025, the iron ore production in the Pilbara region reached about 89.67 million tons (100% equity), with a year-on-year increase of about 3.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 6.7%. The production and shipment gaps caused by the cyclone in Q1 were gradually repaired in Q2 and Q3. The annual Pilbara production was about 327 million tons (100% caliber), basically the same as in 2024; the annual shipment was 326.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, at the lower end of the guidance range [7]. - In terms of product structure, the sales proportion of SP10 decreased significantly year-on-year. In Q4, the sales of SP10 were about 10.5 million tons (100% equity), a year-on-year decrease of about 50%. The average realized price for the whole year was $82.8 per wet ton (FOB), lower than the 2024 level, affected by both the decline of the price index and the product structure change [7][9]. - The Simandou project achieved its first shipment in Q4, marking the official entry of new supply in West Africa into the realization stage. Rio Tinto set its Simandou shipment guidance target for 2026 at 5 - 10 million tons, and the Pilbara shipment guidance target at 323 - 338 million tons. In 2026, the production rhythm is expected to remain stable [9]. BHP - In Q4 2025 (Q2 of BHP's 2026 fiscal year), the iron ore production of BHP WAIO was about 76.33 million tons (100% equity), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.7% and a year-on-year increase of about 4.4%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative production of WAIO was 147 million tons (100% caliber), a year-on-year increase of 1%. The material extraction at the mine increased by 9% year-on-year, and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the cyclone and railway maintenance have been basically digested. After the completion of the CD3 reconstruction and the promotion of the railway technology upgrade project, the system operation efficiency continued to improve [12]. - In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the production of Samarco was 4 million tons (BHP's equity caliber), a year-on-year increase of 48%. After the restart of the second concentrator, it has been running stably, and the concentration efficiency and recovery rate have improved. The company has approved the third - stage expansion plan, and it is expected to increase the production capacity to about 26 million tons per year (100% equity) in the next few years [12]. - BHP's annual production guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged in the range of 284 - 296 million tons (100% equity). Considering the progress in the first half of the fiscal year and the operation intensity in Q4, it is estimated that it can reach the upper half of the range. BHP is still negotiating the annual contract terms with China National Mineral Resources Group, and the subsequent negotiation progress needs attention [13]. FMG - In the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, Fortescue's iron ore shipments were 50.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative shipments were 100.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a new high for the first half of the fiscal year. In Q4, the ore mining volume was 61.4 million tons and the processing volume was 49.8 million tons, operating at a high load. The shipments of traditional hematite were 48.3 million tons, basically the same year-on-year, indicating that the operation rhythm of the main mining areas was stable without obvious capacity disturbances [16]. - In the Iron Bridge project, the concentrate shipments in Q4 were 2.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative shipments were 4.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The project's operation stability has improved significantly, and the concentrate shipment rhythm has become more normalized. As the production line gradually enters a stable stage, the increase in the proportion of concentrate supplements the overall shipment structure [16]. - FMG's annual shipment guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged in the range of 195 - 205 million tons (100% equity), including 10 - 12 million tons from the Iron Bridge project. Based on the progress in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year and the current quarterly operation intensity, it is optimistic that it can achieve the guidance target [16]. Vale - In Q4 2025, Vale's iron ore production was 90.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. Although it slightly declined from the high in Q3, it was still at a relatively high level in recent single - quarters. The annual iron ore production in 2025 reached 336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the highest level since 2018 [20][23]. - In terms of different systems, the production of the northern system in Q4 was 44.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5 million tons, mainly affected by the recoverable resource structure of the Serra Norte mine and phased maintenance; the annual production of S11D reached 86 million tons, maintaining a high - level operation. The production of the southeast system in Q4 was 23.9 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase. The stable operation of Brucutu and the continuous ramping up of the Capanema project contributed the main increments, and the single - quarter production of Capanema was about 3 million tons, expected to reach full production in Q2 2026. The production of the southern system in Q4 was 13.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase, and the operation of the Vargem Grande and Paraopeba systems improved significantly [23]. - In terms of sales, the iron ore sales in Q4 were 84.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, basically matching the production rhythm. The annual sales were 314 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The company adjusted the product portfolio according to the market premium changes, and the proportion of medium - grade ore and blended ore increased, making the shipment structure more balanced [23]. - Vale's annual production guidance target for 2025 was previously 325 - 335 million tons, and the actual production was 336 million tons, at the upper end of the guidance range. The production guidance target for 2026 is further increased to the range of 335 - 345 million tons. The new production mainly comes from the ramping up of existing projects and system recovery, and it is expected that the increment in the second half of 2026 will be higher than that in the first half [24].