能源化工日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply cut. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea is to make a mid - term layout, but wait for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [1]. - For methanol, the downward momentum still exists, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips in the mid - term [1]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative expectations for the fundamentals of urea are coming, so short positions are recommended [2]. - For rubber, there is no substantial industry - specific positive news, and the increase is judged to be driven by macro and capital factors. Attention should be paid to the trends of Hainan Rubber and long - position opportunities [3]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term support. The overall situation is that supply is strong and demand is weak, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and production start - up [7]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene are rising, and the basis is narrowing. The spot price of styrene is falling, and the futures price is rising, and the basis is weakening. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of valuation is narrowing. The non - integrated profit of styrene can be gradually taken profit [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene is falling, and the downward space of PE valuation still exists. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand side is in the off - season [14]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. There is no production capacity expansion plan in H1 2026, and the demand side's production start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [16]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance operations, with a low overall load center. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term situation is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [18]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is expected to recover after the off - season. The inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end. The processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures closed up 28.70 yuan/barrel, a 6.18% increase, at 493.30 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil of related refined oil main futures closed up 79.00 yuan/ton, a 2.76% increase, at 2942.00 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 192.00 yuan/ton, a 5.84% increase, at 3478.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, there is an Iranian supply gap, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea is mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [1]. Methanol - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the main contract of methanol changed by 67.00 yuan/ton, reporting 2285 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downward momentum still exists, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips in the mid - term [1]. Urea - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 65 yuan/ton. The main contract of futures changed by 22 yuan/ton, reporting 1855 yuan/ton [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative expectations for the fundamentals of urea are coming, so short positions are recommended [2]. Rubber - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, due to the sharp rise in crude oil and chemicals, rubber increased in position. There was no substantial positive news in the industry, and it was judged to be driven by macro and capital factors. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 15800 (+550) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2040 (+80) US dollars, and STR20 mixed was 2040 (+80) US dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10300 (0) yuan, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was 12200 - 12600 (+150) yuan. The raw material purchase prices in the mainstream Thai market were: raw rubber sheets 64.05, up 1.05 from the previous day; smoked rubber sheets 68.79, up 1.62; glue 67, up 1.0; cup rubber 58, up 0.5 [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Attention should be paid to the trends of Hainan Rubber and long - position opportunities. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on RU2701 and short on RU2609 with a spread of 635 (-30), and go long on the NR main contract and short on RU2609. When the spread expands to over 3150, add positions to buy NR and sell RU2609 [3][4]. PVC - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the PVC05 contract rose 43 yuan, reporting 4948 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (-30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 228 (-73) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2350 (-200) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 618 (+16) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production start - up rate was 80.1%, a 0.8% month - on - month increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a 0.8% month - on - month increase; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a 1% month - on - month increase. The overall downstream production start - up rate was 13%, a 28.5% month - on - month decrease. The in - factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 million tons (+2.7) [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term support. The overall situation is that supply is strong and demand is weak, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and production start - up [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6103 yuan/ton, up 87.5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 6124 yuan/ton, up 87.5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 7497 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton; the basis was 53 yuan/ton, weakening by 174 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 213.975 yuan/ton, down 44.125 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production start - up rate was 69.96%, up 0.68%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 million tons, with an inventory increase of 0.80 million tons. The weighted production start - up rate of three S was 40.79%, up 0.23%; the PS production start - up rate was 55.20%, down 0.40%; the EPS production start - up rate was 56.24%, up 2.98%; the ABS production start - up rate was 64.40%, down 1.70% [9][10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene are rising, and the basis is narrowing. The spot price of styrene is falling, and the futures price is rising, and the basis is weakening. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of valuation is narrowing. The non - integrated profit of styrene can be gradually taken profit [11]. Polyethylene - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, from a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 202 yuan/ton, weakening by 102 yuan/ton. The upstream production start - up rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% month - on - month decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 5.67 million tons, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 0.23 million tons. The downstream average production start - up rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% month - on - month decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan month - on - month expansion [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene is falling, and the downward space of PE valuation still exists. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand side is in the off - season [14]. Polypropylene - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, from a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, weakening by 5 yuan/ton. The upstream production start - up rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% month - on - month decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 1.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 0.02 million tons, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 0.03 million tons. The downstream average production start - up rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan month - on - month expansion. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan month - on - month narrowing [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. There is no production capacity expansion plan in H1 2026, and the demand side's production start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [16]. PX - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the PX05 contract rose 242 yuan, reporting 7478 yuan, the PX CFR rose 33 US dollars, reporting 933 US dollars. Converted according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 13 yuan (+24), and the 5 - 7 spread was 16 yuan (+4). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92%, a 2.5% month - on - month increase; the Asian load was 83.7%, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 74.8%, a 2.8% month - on - month decrease. In terms of devices, Dushan Energy had maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 million tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 19 million tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 306 US dollars (+8), South Korea's PX - MX was 149 US dollars (+2), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 US dollars (-10) [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance operations, with a low overall load center. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term situation is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [18]. PTA - Market Information: On February 25, 2026, the PTA05 contract rose 148 yuan, reporting 5352 yuan, the East China spot price rose 155 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 62 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was 32 yuan (0). The PTA load was 74.8%, a 2.8% month - on - month decrease. In terms of devices, Dushan Energy had maintenance. The downstream load was 77.6%, a 0.6% month - on - month decrease. In terms of devices, Chenghuijin's 200,000 - ton slicing, Jingwei's 200,000 - ton staple fiber, Jiangnan's 300,000 - ton staple fiber, and Xiangyang's 150,000 - ton staple fiber had maintenance, Huahong's 290,000 - ton staple fiber was shut down, and Yisheng's 500,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 12% to 5%, and the loom load decreased by 9% to 0%. In terms of inventory,