万联晨会-20260225

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.20 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the oil and petrochemical and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media sector lagged. Among concept sectors, combustible ice and cultivated diamond concepts had the highest increases [2][8] Important News - On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list, which includes companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities. Another 20 entities, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list due to unverified end-users and end-uses of dual-use items [3][8] Industry Analysis - As of February 15, 2026, 42 listed companies in the social service sector had released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balance of goods and services, with service consumption expected to be a major growth driver [9][10] - The social service sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by policies such as the implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday system and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Key areas of focus include travel-related companies benefiting from these policies, leading chain restaurants in a critical phase of expansion, and early-stage investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [9][10] Earnings Forecasts - The social service sector has a total of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors. Among the companies that released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable in 2025, with a pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among consumption sectors. Compared to the same period in 2024, the sector's performance is under pressure, with a noticeable trend of divergence [10][12] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that released forecasts expected to be profitable. The professional services sector is performing steadily, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses [10][12]