宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年2月25日）-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices is slightly bullish, and the medium - term trend is sideways. The short - term and medium - term trends of palm oil and soybean oil futures prices are also slightly bullish and sideways respectively [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Day - to - day view: Slightly bullish [5] - Medium - term view: Sideways [5] - Reference view: Slightly bullish [5] - Core logic: Concerns about Sino - US agricultural trade prospects are rising. The fundamentals are a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The five - year average soybean harvest rate in South American Brazil is the lowest in the same period, and the delayed harvest provides short - term support for US soybean futures prices, but the expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The domestic spot market is resistant to decline due to the resumption of oil refinery operations and concentrated product rights, but the high pre - holiday inventory pressure persists. Soybean meal prices are caught in a game between increased import cost volatility and loose domestic supply - demand [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Day - to - day view: Slightly bullish [7] - Medium - term view: Sideways [7] - Reference view: Slightly bullish [7] - Core logic: After the Spring Festival, the domestic edible oil market followed the upward trend of the external market. The core drivers are the strengthening of international oil prices and the optimistic expectation of US biofuel policies, which have pushed US soybean oil to a two - and - a - half - year high. Although the supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil are both weak, it is driven up passively by the leading rise of soybean oil and the boost of crude oil. The domestic spot price has risen with the market. The market's focus has shifted to whether the post - holiday downstream replenishment demand can be fulfilled and the resumption of oil refinery operations. In the short term, the biofuel theme and the strength of crude oil provide strong support for the edible oil sector, but the upward space is restricted by fundamental pressures such as weak Malaysian palm oil exports and the pressure of domestic palm oil arrivals [7]. Other Information - For varieties with night trading sessions, the night - trading closing price is used as the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily - trading closing price is the end price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is slightly bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is slightly bullish, and a rise of more than 1% is strong. The slightly bullish/bearish view is only for the day - to - day view, with no distinction between short - term and medium - term [3][4]. - Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - trading closing price [6].