中泰期货晨会纪要-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock Index Futures: Bullish on the performance of small and medium - cap indexes, and pay attention to liquidity cooperation. After the Spring Festival, the IC is likely to perform better than the IH weight index [11][12]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market sentiment is good, but the short - term odds are insufficient. Adopt a band trading strategy. The bond market may continue to oscillate for some time after the Spring Festival and then trade based on the incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the government work report of the Two Sessions, with overall increments but limited marginal increments [13]. - Black Commodities: In the short term, steel and iron ore will oscillate. Hold the short - wide - straddle position on rebar and partially take profit on the medium - term high - level short position on iron ore, and hold the short position lightly. The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly in the short term. For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see at present [15][17][19]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: The copper price may show a strong - oscillating trend in the short term but is pressured by domestic inventory accumulation. For zinc, it is advisable to wait and see or re - enter the short position. Hold the previous short position on lead. The price of lithium carbonate may oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will oscillate widely [21][24][26]. - Agricultural Products: The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The domestic cotton price may rise in the long term. The sugar price will oscillate at a low level. The egg price is expected to oscillate. The price of high - quality apples may be strong. The corn price will oscillate and adjust. The jujube price will oscillate weakly. The post - holiday pig market is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand [29][30][37]. - Energy and Chemicals: The crude oil market is in a game between the upward impulse caused by geopolitical risks and the downward pressure caused by fundamental oversupply. The fuel oil is mainly affected by the oil price under the influence of geopolitics. The polyolefin price has some support but is under supply pressure. The rubber price has cost support but be cautious about chasing up. The synthetic rubber price may rise but be cautious about chasing up. The methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. The caustic soda price will oscillate. The asphalt price follows the oil price. The PVC price may enter a callback. The polyester industry chain may improve in the medium term. The LPG price of the far - month contract is expected to be weak. The pulp price may rise if the market conditions are good. The log price has cost support. The urea price will oscillate widely [39][41][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council executive meeting deployed post - Spring Festival government work, studied the development of the silver - haired economy and elderly care services [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce included 20 Japanese entities in the export control list and the attention list [8]. - During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists reached 596 million, and the total tourism expenditure was 803.483 billion yuan, both hitting record highs [8]. - The central bank carried out 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net increase of 300 billion yuan [8]. - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged for 9 consecutive months [9]. - During the Spring Festival, the cross - regional population flow exceeded 28 billion person - times, and the number of waterway passengers increased by 27.8% year - on - year [9]. - From April 1st, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, which may affect the industry's future demand and corporate profits [9]. - Meta and AMD reached an AI chip agreement worth up to hundreds of billions of dollars, and Meta may hold up to 10% of AMD's shares [9]. - FedEx sued the US government for tariff refund [10]. - The US and Iran will resume negotiations, and the US may use force if necessary [10]. - The US government plans to use an AI project to set reference prices for key minerals [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market had a good start in the Year of the Horse. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, and the market turnover was 2.22 trillion yuan. The performance of IC is likely to be better than that of IH after the Spring Festival [11][12]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The central bank conducted 526 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan. The bond market may oscillate after the Spring Festival and then trade based on the policies of the Two Sessions [13]. 3.4 Black Commodities 3.4.1 Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. The steel inventory is high after the Spring Festival, which suppresses the steel price. The iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is in a loose state. In the short term, steel and iron ore will oscillate [15]. 3.4.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal decreased seasonally during the Spring Festival, but the demand was stagnant. After the holiday, the supply will recover quickly, and the demand will recover slowly. The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly [17][18]. 3.4.3 Soda Ash and Glass - The inventory of the industry chain increased seasonally during the holiday. The supply of soda ash will remain high, and the glass industry has both cold - repair and ignition plans. It is advisable to wait and see at present [19]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.5.1 Copper - The copper price may oscillate strongly in the short term due to the slight decrease in tariffs but is pressured by domestic inventory accumulation [21]. 3.5.2 Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased during the Spring Festival. The supply and demand are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see or re - enter the short position [21]. 3.5.3 Lead - The lead inventory is expected to increase after the Spring Festival due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Hold the previous short position [22]. 3.5.4 Lithium Carbonate - The downstream demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and the supply increase is limited in the short term. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term [24]. 3.5.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will oscillate widely. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the demand for polysilicon is weak but may improve marginally in March [26]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - The cotton market is affected by the macro - environment and the international market. The domestic cotton price may rise in the long term due to the expected decrease in planting area [29]. 3.6.2 Sugar - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply, and the domestic sugar price will oscillate at a low level [30][31]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The post - holiday egg price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is weak, but there is a certain support for the futures price [32]. 3.6.4 Apples - The high - quality apple price may be strong, and the overall price will oscillate in a range [34]. 3.6.5 Corn - The corn price will oscillate and adjust. It faces pressure from warming temperatures and imported grains [35]. 3.6.6 Jujubes - The jujube price will oscillate weakly. The supply is large, and the consumption may face pressure after the holiday [36]. 3.6.7 Pigs - The post - holiday pig market is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is likely to be weak [37]. 3.7 Energy and Chemicals 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The international crude oil price rose during the Spring Festival. The market is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply [39]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is mainly affected by the oil price under the influence of geopolitics, and the supply is at risk due to geopolitical conflicts [41][42]. 3.7.3 Plastics - The polyolefin supply pressure is large, but the price has some support due to the unstable situation in the Middle East [43]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The rubber price has cost support, but be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options and narrowing the RU - NR spread [45]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber price may rise, but be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the changes in raw materials and energy prices [46]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply from Iran and the port inventory [47]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price will oscillate. The futures price is affected by the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and the price of liquid caustic soda [48]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price, and pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [50]. 3.7.9 PVC - The PVC price may enter a callback. The core supply - demand contradiction has not been improved [51]. 3.7.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term supply and demand of the polyester industry chain are under pressure, but it may improve in the medium term. Consider low - buying and positive - spreading opportunities [52]. 3.7.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG far - month contract price is expected to be weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is restricted [52]. 3.7.12 Pulp - The pulp price may rise if the market conditions are good. Pay attention to the port inventory and the impact of US tariff increases [53]. 3.7.13 Logs - The log price has cost support. Pay attention to the impact of new delivery rules and the recovery of processing plants [54][55]. 3.7.14 Urea - The urea price will oscillate widely. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is highly emotional [55].