金信期货日刊-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai silver futures is high - volatility shock, and the medium - term strategy is to go long on dips without chasing high prices [3][4]. - For A - shares, it is recommended to go long on dips the next day as the market has withstood external pressure and shows an upward trend in the short - term [6]. - Gold should be treated as a shock - biased - up market due to the impact of the holiday rise in the overseas market [10]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a bearish mindset as supply is expected to be loose and terminal demand has not fully started [12][13]. - Glass should be considered in a wide - range shock scenario, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing after the holiday [15][16]. - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise as its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price increases [19]. - For pulp, there are several potential positive factors, including the bankruptcy risk of a French pulp mill, the rebound of coniferous pulp prices in Europe and America, and the long - term positive drive of a new national standard draft in China [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - On February 24, the main contract of Shanghai silver opened and closed higher, with a closing increase of over 12.84%. The main reason was the sharp rise in the overseas market during the Spring Festival due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, leading to a concentrated catch - up rise in the domestic market after the holiday [4]. - In the short term, it will follow the London silver to fluctuate widely in the range of $70 - 100 per ounce, with the core support for domestic prices at 19,000 yuan per kilogram and the strong pressure area at 25,000 yuan per kilogram. Operate with short - term high - selling and low - buying, and use light positions with stop - losses [4]. - In the medium term, the logic is still bullish, supported by the continuous supply - demand gap of silver, the recovery of industrial demand in photovoltaic and AI servers, and the macro - positive factor of the decline in real interest rates under the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [4]. A - shares - A - shares had a good start, with increased trading volume. Technically, the large - cycle shows a box - shaped shock, and the small - cycle has an upward requirement in the early trading the next day. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Gold - Affected by the holiday rise in the overseas market, gold opened sharply higher and fluctuated throughout the day, and should be treated as a shock - biased - up market [10]. Iron Ore - The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and there is an expectation of loose supply in the medium - and long - term due to the mine capacity release cycle. The demand side needs time for the terminal demand to start, and attention should be paid to the impact of policies and sentiment. Technically, it shows a bearish trend on the daily - line level [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting shows a slight reduction, and the factory inventory has accumulated again during the holiday in the seasonal off - season. The short - term trend is unclear, and it should be considered in a wide - range shock scenario. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing after the holiday [15][16]. Methanol - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise as the domestic methanol plant operating rate remains high, the supply - side pressure has not been relieved, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports after the holiday, which suppresses prices [19]. Pulp - There are potential positive factors for pulp, including the possible bankruptcy of a French pulp mill (to be verified in March), the rebound of coniferous pulp prices in Europe and America (need to pay attention to whether European and American consumption can improve earlier than in China), and the long - term positive drive of a new national standard draft in China [22].