观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260225

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it offers individual trend intensities for various commodities: - Positive Trends: Gold, silver, tin, aluminum, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, logs, p-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, short fibers, bottle chips, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [2][18][26][30][36][60][63][71][143][156][173] - Neutral Trends: Copper, zinc, lead, alumina, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), double - offset paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, peanuts [8][11][15][22][74][77][80][83][89][94][97][103][107][110][114][123][126][128][147][152][161][164][168][186] - Negative Trends: Iron ore, eggs, live pigs [43][178][181] 2. Core Views - Commodity - Specific Views: Each commodity's performance is influenced by its unique supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and macro - economic and industry news. For example, gold and silver showed positive trends during the holiday period; iron ore faced poor demand expectations; and lithium carbonate had a tight supply - demand situation [2][43][36] - Macro - economic Impact: Global events such as Trump's tariff policies, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and AI - related economic impacts have affected market sentiment and commodity prices [7] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Oscillated upward during the holiday. The price of domestic and international gold contracts decreased, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings decreased slightly [2][5] - Silver: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday gap - up opening. The price of silver contracts decreased significantly, and trading volume and positions also changed [2][5] - Platinum and Palladium: Both showed a generally upward - trending pattern. The prices of platinum and palladium contracts rose, and trading volume and positions changed [26] Base Metals - Copper: The price rebounded as the US stock market rebounded. Supply - demand data showed changes in inventory and price differentials. Macro - economic and industry news included tariff policies and production data [8] - Zinc: Underwent wide - range adjustments. Price, trading volume, and inventory data showed certain fluctuations. News related to tariff policies also affected the market [11] - Lead: The increase in domestic inventory restricted price rebounds. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, along with relevant news [15] - Tin: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data changed, and there were some macro - economic and industry news [18][19] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the spring rally. Alumina had increased maintenance, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. A large amount of fundamental data was provided [22] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Related Products: Although not the main focus, some related information was mentioned. For example, the price of Brent crude oil futures increased, and it affected the cost of downstream products [64][66] - P - xylene and PTA: Had strong cost support, and the market was expected to rise after the holiday. Supply - demand and cost factors were analyzed [63][64][69] - MEG: Traded in a range, with a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Inventory and supply - demand information was provided [63][67][70] - Rubber: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, and there was some industry news [71] - Synthetic Rubber: Was expected to trade in a short - term range. The price, trading volume, and some fundamental data were provided [74] - LLDPE: Had strong cost support due to geopolitical disturbances during the holiday. Supply - demand and market conditions were analyzed [77] - PP: The C3 raw material was strong, and PDH maintenance remained high. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were provided [80] - Caustic Soda: Was mainly trading in a range with cost support. Supply - demand and inventory information were presented [83] - Pulp: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were provided, along with industry news [89] - Glass: The price of the original sheet was stable. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [94] - Methanol: Traded in a range. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were provided, and there was some market news [97] - Urea: The price center shifted upward. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [103] - Styrene: Traded in a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, and there was some market news [107] - Soda Ash: The spot market changed little. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [110] - LPG: Had strong short - term geopolitical disturbances. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [114] - Propylene: The fundamentals remained tight, and attention should be paid to post - holiday restocking dynamics. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [114] - PVC: Traded in a range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [123] - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil decreased slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [126] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil was difficult to decline in the short term due to production cuts, and soybean oil had limited driving force from US soybeans and rebounded within a range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [156] - Soybean Meal and Soybeans: Soybean meal might rebound and oscillate, and soybeans' spot price increased to catch up, with the futures market oscillating. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [161] - Corn: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [164] - Sugar: Traded in a narrow range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [168] - Cotton: Reached a new high for the year. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [173] - Eggs: Traded in a weak - oscillating pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [178] - Live Pigs: The spot price was lower than expected, and it was difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [181] - Peanuts: Traded in an oscillating pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [186] Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Should be treated with an oscillating mindset. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [128] Fibers - Short Fibers and Bottle Chips: Had cost support and were expected to be strong in the short term. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [143] Paper - Offset Printing Paper: Should be observed. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [147]