集运指数（欧线）：震荡思路对待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The freight index for European routes (EC) should be treated with a volatile mindset. The 2604 contract has a neutral valuation after yesterday's premium adjustment, with an expected trading range of 1150 - 1350 points and a strong resistance level at 1446 points. The 2606 contract should also be treated with a volatile mindset, with an expected trading range of 1500 - 1800 points and a strong resistance level around 1920 points. The 2610 contract follows the 2604 contract in the short - term, and short positions are recommended [10][13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data of Freight Index (European Routes) - Futures Contracts: The EC2604 contract closed at 1320.6 points, up 6.84% with a trading volume of 50,698 and an open interest of 34,505, an increase of 8,660. The EC2606 contract closed at 1691.6 points, up 6.14% with a trading volume of 8,328 and an open interest of 15,857, an increase of 1,897. The ec2610 contract closed at 1,168.8 points, up 4.05% with a trading volume of 2,792 and an open interest of 8,726, an increase of 795 [1]. - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS for European routes was 1,573.51 points, down 2.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS for US - West routes was 1,112.01 points, down 1.7% week - on - week. The SCFI for European routes was $1,361/TEU, down 3.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI for US - West routes was $1,787/FEU, down 0.8% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: The spot freight rates for different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary. For example, Maersk's $/40'GP is 1950, and $/20'GP is 1225 [1]. 2. Supply - side Situation - Capacity Changes during the Spring Festival: In February, the capacity remained basically unchanged, with a weekly average capacity of around 275,000 TEU/week and 11 blank sailings. In March, the capacity was revised downwards, and in April, it was revised upwards. The Gemini Alliance's India - Pakistan - Mediterranean ME11 route plans to resume passing through the Suez Canal from mid - February 2026, while other major Asia - Europe routes are still under evaluation and continue to detour around the Cape of Good Hope [11]. 3. Demand - side Situation - Short - term: During the Spring Festival, the rolling levels of shipping companies vary. Generally, they can cover up to week 8, and some can cover up to week 10. In March 2026, the new rush to transport photovoltaic and battery products will bring a marginal increase in the loading rate [12]. - Medium - to - long - term: European import demand is resilient. In December 2025, Asia's export volume to Europe (North - West Europe + Mediterranean) was about 1.874 million TEU, with a year - on - year growth rate of 8.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 19.84 million TEU, a 9.2% increase compared to 2024 [12]. 4. Spot Freight Rates and Contract Analysis - Spot Freight Rates: From week 7 to 9, the overall FAK center of the market was determined at around $2060/FEU before the festival. In early March, the freight rate center changed little compared to late February. There are still GRI expectations in late March and April, but the implementation situation is unclear [13]. - Contract Analysis: - 2604 Contract: After yesterday's premium adjustment, the contract's valuation is neutral. The possible resumption of late - February prices by some shipping companies in early March will put pressure on the contract. The contract is expected to be volatile, with a trading range of 1150 - 1350 points and a strong resistance level at 1446 points [13]. - 2606 Contract: It should be treated with a volatile mindset, with a trading range of 1500 - 1800 points and a strong resistance level around 1920 points. It is a relatively good long - position contract in the short - term [14]. - 2610 Contract: It follows the 2604 contract in the short - term, with a relatively small amplitude. Short positions are recommended [14]. 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the freight index for European routes is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].