格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol price is oscillating with a bullish bias, but the later stage still needs to focus on the Middle East geopolitical situation and the digestion of port inventories [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 18 yuan to 2287 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose 43 yuan to 2243 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 44,831 lots to 482,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,295 lots to 555,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 36,600 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.61% [2] - Demand: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 56,300 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons month - on - month. The orders to be shipped of sample enterprises are 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.75%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 78.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 18.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 11%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [2] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest, reaching 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Price: The market is concerned about the prospects of the US - Iran talks. The Iranian side hopes to reach a fair agreement with the US in the shortest possible time, alleviating concerns, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.68 US dollars/barrel to 65.63 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 0.72 US dollars/barrel to 70.77 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 25.3 to 489.9 yuan/barrel, and fell 4.4 to 485.5 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unstable, and the international crude oil is oscillating sharply at a high level. The methanol port inventory is still at a high level of over 1.4 million tons in the same period. It is expected that the total methanol import volume in March may drop to between 600,000 - 650,000 tons. The restart expectation of Iranian plants and the inventory - clearing demand in production areas continue to suppress the price [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions or partially take profits [2]