双焦（J&JM）：20260225申万期货品种策略日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke showing an oscillating trend, with the total position of coking coal increasing slightly month - on - month. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the output of refined coal from mines has decreased slightly month - on - month in recent weeks. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has dropped from its high level month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period. The pressure on the supply side of coking coal has been alleviated. On the demand side, the pig iron output has not changed significantly month - on - month, and the output of downstream coke has remained basically the same month - on - month, lacking obvious incremental demand. After the Spring Festival, with the advancement of resuming work and production, there is an expectation of an increase in pig iron output, which will drive the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke, strongly supporting coal prices. The future focus should be on the trend of pig iron output, the operating conditions of mines, and the policy trends on the import side [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - For coking coal: The previous day's closing prices for September, January, and May contracts were 1365.5, 1101.5, and 1184.5 respectively, with price changes of - 10.5, - 19.5, and - 17.0 and price change rates of - 0.76%, - 1.74%, and - 1.41% compared to the day before. The trading volumes were 2201, 592026, and 39587, and the positions were 9972, 468538, and 87519, with position increases of 702, 56059, and 1720 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5, with spread changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively [2]. - For coke: The previous day's closing prices for September, January, and May contracts were 1800.0, 1634.5, and 1706.5 respectively, with price changes of - 40.0, - 47.5, and - 44.5 and price change rates of - 2.17%, - 2.82%, and - 2.54% compared to the day before. The trading volumes were 611, 19187, and 1014, and the positions were 808, 39187, and 2307, with position increases of 82, 3937, and 368 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83, with spread changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - The spot prices of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port self - pick - up price, low - sulfur coking coal at the Linfen ex - factory price, low - sulfur coking coal at the Taiyuan wagon - board price, Tangshan first - grade coke ex - factory price, Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price were 1227, 1570, 1391, 1852, 1330, and 1470 respectively, and all the spot price changes were 0 [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Information - On February 24, the People's Bank of China announced that the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, remaining unchanged for nine consecutive months. In addition, the central bank plans to conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on February 25, with a term of 1 year, using a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid method [2].