美伊谈判进展持续扰动原油市场，化?节后开?红

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is continuously disturbed by the progress of the US - Iran negotiations, and the price of crude oil is oscillating strongly. The chemical industry has a good start after the Spring Festival. Although there is inventory accumulation, it may continue the oscillating pattern. The overall outlook is that the crude oil will maintain high volatility, and the chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: API crude oil has a large inventory build - up, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continuously disturbs the market. The supply is expected to be loose this year, but the geopolitical premium is significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2][7]. - Asphalt: The spot price rises, and the asphalt futures price goes up. The long - term supply of raw materials is expected to be abundant, and the current price is over - valued. It is expected to oscillate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [6][7]. - High - sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures price still has a high geopolitical premium. The increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on it. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude oil to oscillate upwards. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low. It is expected to oscillate and follow the crude oil fluctuations [9]. - PX: The cost boost and the warm commodity sentiment resonate, and the price center moves up. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [10]. - PTA: Supported by cost and tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [11]. - Pure Benzene: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The fundamentals in Q1 are better than those in Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - Styrene: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The seasonal inventory build - up height in February is adjusted downwards, but the support strength declines. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price rebound is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the support below is enhanced. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short - term [16][18]. - Short - fiber: Supported by cost and tariff reduction, it is beneficial for export. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [18][19]. - Bottle Chip: The cost boost is obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [20]. - Methanol: After the festival, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues, and it oscillates widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress between the US and Iran [22][23]. - Urea: Driven by post - festival demand, it oscillates strongly. Although there is upward momentum, the upward space is limited [24]. - Plastic (LLDPE): The geopolitical disturbance boosts the sentiment, and it rebounds slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. - PP: The basis is weak, and the futures price follows the crude oil to rebound slightly in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [29]. - PL: Supported by the spot and the rising oil price, it rebounds. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [30]. - PVC: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it may oscillate. The high inventory forms a suppression, and the market sentiment is supported by the geopolitical disturbance and the spring inspection expectation [31]. - Caustic Soda: With low valuation and weak expectation, it oscillates. The high inventory suppresses, but the spring inspection and downstream restocking support it [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also have corresponding changes, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation to a certain extent [35]. - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. have changed, which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different varieties [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific monitoring data and analysis content are provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity index all show different degrees of increase, reflecting the overall upward trend of the market [275][276].