Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The precious metals market is volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver should be carefully participated in. The copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Alumina prices may have potential upward drivers. Lead is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and zinc should be traded within a range. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips. For the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see, with radical investors considering short - term long positions in some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends and trading strategies. In the energy and chemical industry, different products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations [1][2][3][5][6][8]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: International gold and silver prices fell in the night session yesterday. Gold fell by 5142 dollars/ounce, and silver fell by 1.24% to 87 dollars/ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump's "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and inflation - related statements were made by Fed officials. Domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventory changes occurred in various markets [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious in participating in the silver market [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices strengthened significantly in the night session yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Trump's plan to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals may intensify concerns. The demand shows certain characteristics such as spot premiums and post - festival inventory accumulation [2]. - Trading Strategy: Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, US tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose, but there may be upward drivers, and the upward space depends on the marginal change of the supply - demand pattern [3]. Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On February 24, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24625 yuan/ton and 16670 yuan/ton respectively, with different price changes compared with the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: For lead, the processing fee at the mine end is low, production decreased in February, and demand is limited. For zinc, the processing fee is also low, production decreased seasonally, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short lead on rallies and trade zinc within the range of 23500 - 25500 yuan/ton [3]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 164,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.52% [3]. - Fundamentals: The prices of lithium - related products increased. Supply decreased in February, and demand also decreased seasonally. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to concerns about lithium ore export blockades and good expectations for material production in March [3]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices strengthened significantly yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply of tin ore is tight, and there are concerns about Indonesian policies. The demand shows strong premiums and increased warehouse receipts [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main contract of rebar 2605 closed at 3030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The demand for building materials is weak, but supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and exports are high. There is significant inventory accumulation during the festival [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in rebar 2605. The reference range for RB05 is 3000 - 3060 [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed at 743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. Port inventory is high, and there are structural contradictions [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 735 - 765 [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract of coking coal 2605 closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in coking coal 2605. The reference range for JM05 is 1080 - 1140 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean crushing is strong, and export concerns are alleviated [6]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market is also volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [6]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and most spot prices increased [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low, but downstream is in a loss state [6]. - Trading Strategy: After the Spring Festival, deep - processing enterprises in North China will replenish inventory, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is in the late stage of seasonal production reduction, and the demand decreased in February [6]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of late - stage seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations is weakened. An inverse hedging strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to subsequent production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5252 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase is completed, and the focus is on Brazil's new - season production expectations. Domestically, the supply is more relaxed, and the inventory will reach a high level after March [7]. - Trading Strategy: Prices will fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and closed flat. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose to a recent high [7]. - Fundamentals: Globally, the cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% in 26/27, and consumption and exports are expected to increase. In the US, imports from India increased. Domestically, the rising ICE cotton price helps the domestic cotton price strengthen [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and some spot prices increased [7]. - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [7]. - Trading Strategy: The demand is weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [7]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices weakened across the board [7]. - Fundamentals: Seasonally, the slaughter volume will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. The supply is strong and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival, and both futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [7]. - Trading Strategy: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6640 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is relieved as there is no new device put into operation in the first half of the year, and some existing devices reduce production or stop. The import window is closed, and the demand is weak currently but will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate strongly, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran incident [8]. PVC - Market Performance: v05 closed at 4963, an increase of 0.6% [9]. - Fundamentals: PVC is suppressed by high inventory, with large supply and low demand as downstream factories have not resumed work. The real estate market is weak [9]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The CFR China price of PX is 933 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China is 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. The supply of PTA is at a medium level, and the polyester factory load is at a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is not large, and the profit of polyester products has improved [9]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain the view of long - term allocation of PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [9]. Glass - Market Performance: fg05 closed at 1061, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - Fundamentals: Glass inventory increased during the holiday, and the price is stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream is not yet in operation, and the price is affected by macro - expectations [9]. - Trading Strategy: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to buy 09 and sell 01 for a positive spread [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6620 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - Fundamentals: In the short term, the supply pressure increases as new device put - into - operation decreases and some devices stop unexpectedly. The demand is low currently as downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate. The upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran incident. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction is still large, and it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3648 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 86 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is relieved as some devices are transferred or under maintenance. The import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China has increased to 900,000 tons, and the polyester load is seasonally low. The overall inventory pressure is not large [10]. - Trading Strategy: Inventory accumulation is expected, and de - stocking may start in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [10]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices have been fluctuating recently as the market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation on the 26th. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about 10 dollars/barrel [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure due to EU policies, but the loading volume remains stable. The short - term core factor is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the production capacity of some countries is continuously released [10]. - Trading Strategy: The current trading core is the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [10]. Benzene and Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract rose significantly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 7700 yuan/ton, and the overseas price is stable with a slight increase. The import window is closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [10]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate strongly due to inventory accumulation and marginal improvement in supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Styrene will fluctuate as the inventory is normal, the basis is strong, and the supply increases while the demand decreases [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1184, an increase of 1.9% [10]. - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is weak as there is a production - reduction expectation for photovoltaic glass and float glass [10]. - Trading Strategy: The supply increases and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10].
招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260225
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2026-02-25 01:54