2026年2月25日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent performance of precious metals has been strong, driven by three main factors: the change in US tariff policy impacting the US dollar's credit, the tense situation in Iran during the holiday boosting the safe - haven demand for gold, and the enhanced anti - inflation property of gold due to stagflation risks. In the short term, the tariff ruling and geopolitical conflicts have a resonance effect on precious metals, and in the long - term, factors like de - dollarization and geopolitical risks will support gold to return to an upward channel. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term due to the resonance of its industrial and financial attributes [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 increased by 40.36 and 40.40 respectively, with a growth rate of 3.62% and 3.64%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 increased by 2460 and 2545 respectively, with a growth rate of 12.57% and 12.87% [2] - Positions and Volumes: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 are 93903 and 157411 respectively, and the trading volumes are 34008 and 126903 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 are 136869 and 175097 respectively, and the trading volumes are 129011 and 210732 respectively [2] - Spot Premiums or Discounts: The spot premiums or discounts of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 are - 6.94 and - 3.62 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 are - 544 and - 841 respectively [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 38.38, with a growth rate of 3.46%. The closing price of London Gold decreased by 95.42, with a decline rate of 1.83%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D increased by 2216, with a growth rate of 11.50%. The closing price of London Silver decreased by 1.10, with a decline rate of 1.25% [2] - Price Ratios: The current value of the spread between Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 is 3.32, and the spread between Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 is - 297.00. The gold - to - silver ratio in the spot market is 53.38. The ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 1.01, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.11 [2] Inventory - Changes: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 105,072 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 3680 kg to 349,879 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 73343 ounces to 33,701,164 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2969 ounces to 364,000,164 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - Positions and Changes: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 8 tons to 1,094 tons, and the position of SLV Silver ETF increased by 313 tons to 15,830 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 97 to 159,915, and the net position in silver increased by 1048 to 24,003 [2] Macro News - Military Deployment: The US deployed 12 F - 22 fighter jets to Israel, and the F - 22s landed at an Israeli air base on Tuesday evening [3] - Sanctions and Agreements: The President of the European Commission is confident in passing the 20th round of sanctions against Russia. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Tehran is ready to reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible [3] - Tariff Policy: The Trump administration is working to raise the temporary global tariff rate from 10% to 15%. The US may simplify the wide - ranging tariffs on steel and aluminum products, and the scope of the 50% tariff on so - called steel and aluminum "derivative products" may be narrowed in a few weeks [3][5] - Iran Situation: US Secretary of State Rubio will brief major lawmakers on the situation in Iran. The US government is weighing possible strikes against Iran. A resolution requiring Trump to obtain congressional authorization before using force against Iran may be voted on next week or later, and its passage in the House of Representatives seems unlikely [4]