橡胶：震荡偏强20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The trend strength of rubber is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 17,030 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 17,180 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 245,962 lots, an increase of 80,492 lots; the open interest was 162,068 lots, an increase of 21,833 lots. The net short position of the top 20 members was 24,685 lots, an increase of 2,286 lots [1] - Spread Data: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 230 yuan, a decrease of 65 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,180 yuan, a decrease of 185 yuan. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 200 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan. The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,400 US dollars/ton, STR20 was 2,080 US dollars/ton (up 85 US dollars), SMR20 was 2,070 US dollars/ton (up 85 US dollars), and SIR20 was 1,980 US dollars/ton (up 75 US dollars) [1] - Substitutes: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan [1] - Spot Market: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1,965 - 1,970 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars), and the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,965 - 1,970 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars). The price of African 10 rubber was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons, an increase of 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons, an increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons, an increase of 9.67%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 6.8 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.65 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.36 percentage points [2][3] - Most enterprises resumed work as planned, mostly on the sixth and eighth days of the first lunar month. Some early - starting enterprises have basically returned to a high - level operation. Most production facilities are in the process of gradual recovery, and the overall start - up rate is affected by the fact that some non - local employees have not arrived. After the Spring Festival, shipments have gradually resumed, and some enterprises are out of stock [3]