品种晨会纪要：宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-25-20260225

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the short - term and intraday view of crude oil 2604 is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The overall view is bullish, driven by geopolitical risk premium, tight supply - demand balance, and domestic resumption of work demand [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Price and Performance - After the Spring Festival, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 6.18% to 493.3 yuan/barrel [5]. Core Driving Factors - Geopolitical factors: The repeated situation in the Middle East is the core variable of oil price fluctuations. The limited progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, the US troop increase in the Middle East, and Iran's military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz during the Spring Festival have increased market concerns about supply interruption. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes, any tension escalation may increase the risk premium of oil prices. The continuous disturbance of Red Sea shipping has also pushed up transportation costs and magnified the transmission effect of geopolitical risks on oil prices [5]. - Supply - demand relationship: The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from domestic resumption of work also drives the oil price [5]. Market Characteristics and Risks - In the short term, oil prices are dominated by geopolitics and supported by fundamentals, with obvious characteristics of high - level and high - volatility. Attention should be paid to events and data rhythms, and the callback pressure caused by the ebb of risk premium should be guarded against [5].