生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, the supply of white sugar is relatively sufficient, but the fundamental outlook may improve. Zhengzhou white sugar futures may build a bottom and accumulate strength in the short - term, with limited downside space and insufficient short - term upward drivers. For pulp, the downstream is in the off - season, and the pulp is under short - term pressure, but the probability of the pulp futures falling below 5000 is low. For double - offset paper, the spot price is stable, and the cost support weakens, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. For cotton, the long - term bullish expectations continue, and the futures price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [3][4][5][8]. - For the fresh fruit sector, the apple futures price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound and strong fluctuation, and the decline space may be limited. The jujube futures price is in a narrow - range shock at a low level, and the contradiction between futures and spot price has been alleviated [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The supply - side support remains, but the continuous driving force is slightly insufficient, and it maintains a high - level range - bound fluctuation. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - Soft Commodity Futures - White Sugar 2605: Wait and see for the time being. The situation of oversupply of sugar at home and abroad is expected to improve, and Zhengzhou white sugar is building a bottom at a low level. The support range is 5100 - 5150, and the pressure range is 5330 - 5350 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate lightly long. The downstream is in the off - season, and the pulp lacks new bullish factors. It is under short - term pressure, but there may still be cost support from warehouse receipts. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5360 - 5400 [19]. - Double - Offset Paper 2605: Operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short - term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The long - term bullish expectations remain, and the medium - term support is unchanged. However, the upward trend of the external market price has not been confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The futures price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The support range is 13700 - 13800, and the pressure range is 15700 - 15800 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 11, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.8815 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 316,500 tons. As of February 12, 2026, it was 5.3151 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 574,000 tons [20]. - Spot Market Situation: In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable. After the Spring Festival, some merchants restock, and the trading volume in cold storage is not large. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading volume is average. The sales area is generally stable [20][21][22]. - Jujube Market: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. Due to the dispersed acquisition structure in the 2025 production season and the cautious expectations for the new - season market after the Spring Festival, current holders tend to actively sell goods before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory pressure [23]. - White Sugar Market: India's sugar production is expected to be reduced to 33 million tons, but the domestic supply is still abundant. In the second half of January 2025/26, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was only 5000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36%. As of the end of January 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. Pecege Consulting and Project Company lowered the yield forecast of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil. As of February 15, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, one sugar factory in Guangxi and two in Zhanjiang have shut down for production [25]. - Pulp Market: Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening of demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The spot price of imported NBSK has also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remain stable [29]. - Double - Offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed [30]. - Cotton Market: As of the week of February 20, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 3.0275 million tons, accounting for 99.9% of the annual estimated output, 5% slower year - on - year. As of February 21, the cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 99.9% completed, the same as the previous year [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9705 | - 130 | - 1.32% | | Jujube 2605 | 8845 | 0 | 0.00% | | White Sugar 2605 | 5229 | 18 | 0.35% | | Pulp 2605 | 5340 | 80 | 1.52% | | Cotton 2605 | 15285 | 545 | 3.70% | [32] - Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | White Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 770 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5300 | 0 | - 1380 | | Double - Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 700 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 18 | 1077 | [37] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation in the content, only relevant charts are provided [51][52][54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1365 | - 56 | 1989 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 30 | 185 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | White Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 13 | - 2 | - 138 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | 55 | 115 | 205 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | [59] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation in the content, only relevant charts are provided [66][70][76]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3869 | 103 | - 828 | | White Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9501 | | Pulp | 155621 | 1009 | - 196180 | | Cotton | 11013 | 12 | 3907 | [91] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data in the content, only relevant charts are provided [94][102][107].