天然橡胶日度策略报告-20260225

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily strategy report on natural rubber by the Futures Research Institute of Fangzheng Mid-term [3] - It was written on February 24, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - After the Spring Festival, the chemical industry and the stock market rose sharply, boosting the rubber futures price to challenge the previous high. The overseas spot price of rubber was stable to firm during the holiday, and the suspension of production in rubber-producing areas supported the rubber price [3] - In the US, the GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 1.4% quarter-on-quarter annualized, lower than the market expectation of 2.5% and the revised value of 4.4% in Q3. The PCE price index rose 2.9%, higher than the previous value of 2.8%. The core CPI annual rate in January 2026 dropped to 2.5%, a five - year low. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased [3] - The confrontation between the US and Iran has escalated, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation has not made substantial progress, causing the crude oil price to gap up, which in turn drove up the synthetic rubber price. However, the potential decline in geopolitical sentiment and the rise in macro - hedging sentiment could lead to a retracement of the crude oil price premium [3] - The US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% global tariff on all countries, increasing market concerns about a new round of trade conflicts [4] - As of February 8, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.296 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons or 1.2%, which is a major risk factor for the current rise in rubber prices [4] - The rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, and the raw material price is stable to firm. The downstream is in the seasonal off - season with weak terminal demand, and the finished product inventory is increasing. The supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to gradually improve in the long - term [4] - For rubber trading, take partial profits on long single - sided positions at high levels and avoid chasing the market at high levels due to the volatile macro sentiment [4] Group 4: Section Summaries Part I: Rubber Variety View Summary - For rubber, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The main logic is the continuous small increase in domestic spot inventory, stable overseas supply, firm spot price, and the boost from macro sentiment. The support range is 15,500 - 15,800, and the pressure range is 16,300 - 16,500. The market is expected to fluctuate upwards [10] - For 20 - number rubber, the recommended strategy is also to buy on dips. The main logic is that the dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory turning point, the Thai glue price is firm, and the output in Q4 is declining. The support range is 12,700 - 12,800, and the pressure range is 13,420 - 13,805. The market is expected to recover from the bottom [10] Part II: Futures Market Review I. Futures Market Review - The closing price of the rubber continuous contract was 17,030, with a daily increase of 3.90% or 640. The trading volume was 245,962, and the open interest was 162,068 [10] - The closing price of the 20 - number rubber continuous contract was 13,795, with a daily increase of 3.96% or 525. The trading volume was 66,703, and the open interest was 47,522 [10] - The closing price of the Singapore TSR20 continuous contract was 194, with a daily increase of 0.57% or 1. The trading volume was 1,899, and the open interest was 24,490 [10] II. Futures Market Warehouse Receipts - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of 20 - number rubber was 50,601, a year - on - year change of - 4.20%. The warehouse receipts have rebounded from a low level, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has resurfaced [14] - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rubber was 112,570, a year - on - year change of - 40.42%. A large number of warehouse receipts were cancelled today, and the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year, increasing the delivery risk of futures contracts and supporting the RU futures price [14] Part III: Spot Market Trends - The spot price of natural rubber was 16,283 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 109 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 853 yuan/ton [19] - The price of Yunnan glue was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 1,800 yuan/ton [19] - The price of Thai Haie glue was 62 Thai baht/kg, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 4 Thai baht/kg [19] - The price of Thai Haie cup rubber was 57 Thai baht/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 Thai baht/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5 Thai baht/kg [19] - The price of Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,980 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 170 US dollars/ton [19] Part IV: Basis and Spread Situation - The basis of the RU main contract was - 32, a month - on - month increase of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 437 [24] - The basis of the NR main contract was 1,820, a month - on - month increase of 90 and a year - on - year increase of 115 [24] - The non - standard basis of Thai mixed - RU was - 985, a month - on - month decrease of 55 and a year - on - year increase of 250 [24] - The non - standard basis of SVR3L - RU was 235, a month - on - month decrease of 100 and a year - on - year increase of 570 [24] - The cross - variety spread of RU - NR was 3,235, a month - on - month increase of 100 and a year - on - year increase of 695 [24] - The spread between light and dark - colored rubber (whole milk - Thai mixed) was 720, a month - on - month increase of 55 and a year - on - year decrease of 30 [24] Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation - For rubber, the 5 - 9 spread was 200, a month - on - month increase of 80 and a year - on - year increase of 345. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [26] - For 20 - number rubber, the 3 - 4 spread was - 70, a month - on - month decrease of 10 and a year - on - year decrease of 365. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [26] Part VI: Industrial Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - No specific data summaries were provided in the text, only the figure descriptions related to supply, demand and inventory were given [30] Part VII: Option - related Data - No specific data summaries were provided in the text, only the figure descriptions related to option data were given [34]