国海证券晨会纪要-20260225

Group 1: Transportation Industry Insights - The Spring Festival travel peak has shown a significant increase in passenger volume and ticket prices, indicating an industry turning point. The total inter-regional passenger flow reached 5.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [3][4] - During the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the civil aviation passenger volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with an average ticket price of 943 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [3][4] - The civil aviation industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in passenger volume for 2026, supported by a recovery in business travel and a high seat occupancy rate [5] Group 2: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is entering a favorable cycle with rising prices due to the upcoming peak season and a global trend of reducing overcapacity. The focus is on the recovery of demand and the potential for increased dividend yields from leading companies [6][8] - Key sectors to watch include coal chemical, oil refining, and agricultural chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance potential [8][9] - The industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in supply and increased demand, particularly in sectors like PTA and tire manufacturing, as well as in the context of AI-driven demand [8][9] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has risen to 718 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from power plants [45][46] - The competitiveness of imported coal has diminished, leading to a favorable outlook for domestic coal prices as supply tightens and demand remains stable [45][46] - The overall coal mining industry is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to rising operational costs and regulatory pressures, with a focus on maintaining high-quality assets and cash flow [47]