格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - On February 24, after the holiday, commodities had a collective positive start. The vegetable oil sector gapped up and continued to rise, while the double - meal sector opened high and then declined, trading on the upcoming pressure of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest [1][3] - For the oil market, there are both long and short factors. The external market has positive factors, but the domestic market has a traditional demand off - season. The supply of different oils has different situations, and the overall rise of rapeseed oil is restricted [3] - For the double - meal market, the overall trend is weak. Due to sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling, large inventories, and the approaching pressure of a Brazilian bumper harvest, the double - meal is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the medium term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories 1. Vegetable Oil Sector (Three Oils) a. Market Quotes - On February 24, the main contract Y2605 of soybean oil closed at 8140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.07% and an increase of 5115 lots in positions; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.08% and a decrease of 956 lots in positions [1] - The main contract P2605 of palm oil closed at 8824 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.45% and a decrease of 314 lots in positions; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8814 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a decrease of 2204 lots in positions [1] - The main contract OI2605 of rapeseed oil closed at 9200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.79% and an increase of 14141 lots in positions; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9171 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.79% and an increase of 1834 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - U.S. oil closed down 1% as Iran prepared to reach an agreement with the U.S. before the nuclear negotiations later this week [1] - The U.S. and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the U.S. will reduce the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1] - The U.S. government is expected to finalize the biofuel blending ratio quota for 2026 in early March. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the biodiesel usage in 2026 between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared to the same period in January. Exports to China increased from 19,000 tons to 40,000 tons [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April - July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 22.24% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 23.82% and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% [1] - As of the end of the 7th week in 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9679 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.56% [1] c. Spot Market - As of February 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8580 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 440 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14 yuan/ton [3] - The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the basis was 106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 428.09 yuan/ton [3] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 210 yuan/ton; the basis was 780 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48 yuan/ton [3] d. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. - Iran dispute persists, international crude oil futures remain strong, and the U.S. soybean export outlook and domestic biodiesel policy are positive for U.S. soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is boosted by international crude oil and U.S. soybean oil but is dragged down by poor domestic export data and the upcoming seasonal production recovery period [3] - Domestically, after the replenishment of traders, the traditional demand off - season arrives. If reserve soybeans are not auctioned, the soybean oil inventory will continue to decline; if a large amount of reserve soybeans are auctioned, the supply will be sufficient, and the basis will be under pressure. Palm oil follows the overseas vegetable oil trend, and the supply shortage of rapeseed oil is expected to ease [3] e. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, continue to hold existing long positions in oils, and buy a small amount of new long positions on pullbacks. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [3] 2. Double - Meal Sector a. Market Quotes - On February 24, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal closed at a certain price (not fully provided), with a daily decrease of 0.68% and an increase of 23,675 lots in positions; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2890 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.55% and an increase of 2703 lots in positions [3] - The main contract RM2605 of rapeseed meal closed at 2290 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.82% and an increase of 22,835 lots in positions; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2342 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a decrease of 2119 lots in positions [3] b. Important Information - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's February soybean supply - demand report was overall bearish. Brazil's production and global soybean inventory were slightly increased, but U.S. soybean exports increased by 8 million tons, pushing up U.S. soybean futures prices [3] - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 180 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons [4] - The global soybean inventory is 125.51 million tons, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 are estimated to be 3.79 million tons, a 238% increase from the same period last year [4] - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvesting progress of Brazilian farmers in the 2025/2026 season was 30%, 9% higher than the previous week but behind the same period last year [4] - As of the end of the 8th week in 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8012 million tons, an increase of 151,500 tons from last week; the domestic soybean meal inventory was 863,900 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from last week; the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from last week [4] c. Spot Market - As of February 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3155 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was 3118 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 299 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2463 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 87 yuan/ton; the basis was 2505 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [4] d. Pressing Profit and Cost - The March futures pressing profit of U.S. soybeans was - 552 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing profit was - 218 yuan/ton; the March futures pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 98 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing profit was 236 yuan/ton [4] - The arrival cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans in March at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4119 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3687 yuan/ton [4] e. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. soybean trade outlook is improving, pushing up U.S. soybean futures prices. Domestically, for soybean meal, oil mills are gradually resuming production and digesting previous inventories, and the near - month basis is firm; for rapeseed meal, the terminal has rigid demand for replenishment, and the basis is adjusted within a narrow range. The overall protein sector is weak due to sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling, large inventories, and the approaching Brazilian bumper harvest pressure [4] f. Trading Strategy - Liquidate existing long positions in double - meal and enter a small amount of new short positions. The double - meal is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4]