20260225申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market is concerned about the US-Iran talks on Thursday. Iran said it might take steps to reach an agreement with the US, leading to a decline in international oil prices [3]. - Since Venezuela reached a supply agreement with the US, the trade companies and buyers of Venezuelan oil have chartered the first large crude oil tanker to export oil from this South American country, which will speed up cargo transportation from March and increase oil supply to India [3]. - Developments related to Iran may also affect the subsequent decisions of major oil - producing countries. Before the monthly meeting on Sunday, the issue of OPEC+ production quotas is highly concerned. Eight OPEC+ member countries increased oil production for most of last year, and they are expected to decide the production level for April and possibly longer - term plans at the March 1st meeting [3]. - Methanol prices rose 0.79% at night. Due to the winter gas - limiting policy in Iran and geopolitical situations, China's methanol imports in January 2026 are expected to drop to 1.05 - 1.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34% - 39%. The imports in February may further decline to about 800,000 tons, a significant contraction from the peak of 1.734 million tons in December 2025 [3]. - With the reduction of imports and the restart of MTO devices such as Ningbo Fude, the port's available inventory has dropped to about 680,000 tons, and the port has started the destocking mode [3]. - On February 14, the first 15,000 - ton methanol - only fuel river - sea direct ship "Chuangxin 19" in China successfully made its maiden voyage. Using green methanol fuel can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 90% [3]. - In the short term, the methanol market is supported by reduced imports, rising freight rates, and downstream rigid procurement, and prices may maintain a relatively strong shock. In the medium - to - long term, with limited new domestic production capacity and steady growth in MTO demand, the fundamentals are expected to improve, and the spot and futures prices in the first quarter are expected to rise simultaneously [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 494.8, 493.3, 62.91, 62.74, 69.63, and 68.95 respectively. The price changes were 37.8, 32.6, - 1.98, - 1.99, 0.55, and 0.54, with price change rates of 8.27%, 7.08%, - 3.05%, - 3.07%, 0.80%, and 0.79% respectively. The trading volumes were 785, 57,134, 298,943, 217,319, 333,597, and 216,713 respectively. The positions were 1,668, 39,126, 234,240, 241,210, 540,674, and 492,239 respectively, with position changes of - 470, 1589, - 27598, 3656, - 29632, and 29786 respectively [2]. - Spread Information: The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC sub - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 1.5, 493.3, 62.1, 15.8, 1.17, and 0.68 respectively, while the previous values were - 3.7, 170.7, 10.6, - 18.2, 1.10, and 0.67 respectively [2]. - Exchange Rate Information: The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8786, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.8849 [2]. - Comment: The external market declined [2]. Spot Market - International Market: The current prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 69.71, 72.95, 66.31, 70.24, 70.45, and 66.43 respectively, while the previous values were 70.11, 72.66, 66.48, 71.08, 71.22, and 66.15 respectively [2]. - Domestic Market: The current prices of Daqing, Shengli, China's gasoline wholesale price index, China's diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha in Singapore, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene were 68.57, 67.29, 7,451 yuan/ton, 6,066 yuan/ton, 66.55, and 5,334 yuan/ton respectively, while the previous values were 69.17, 67.80, 7,443 yuan/ton, 6,066 yuan/ton, 66.50, and 5,574 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Comment: International crude oil spot and refined oil prices declined [2].