观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold showed an upward trend during the holiday; silver is expected to open higher after the holiday; copper prices rebounded with the rise of the US stock market; zinc is in a wide - range adjustment; the increase in domestic lead inventories limits price rebounds; tin is trending strongly with fluctuations; aluminum is expected to have a spring rally; alumina has an increase in maintenance; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum is trending strongly with fluctuations; palladium generally follows a strong trend; there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and the contradiction in nickel ore should be continuously monitored; for stainless steel, the cost support center has shifted up, but inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts its flexibility [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main gold contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2602, and London Gold Spot all declined, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 increased by 28,688, and the position decreased by 5,958 [4]. - Inventory and Spread: Gold inventories in some markets decreased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold increased by 759.30 [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold is 1 [6]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main silver contracts such as Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, Comex Silver 2602, and London Silver Spot all declined, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 increased by 4,927, and the position decreased by 13,313 [4]. - Inventory and Spread: Silver inventories in some markets decreased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver increased by 2,053 [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silver is 1 [6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main copper contracts such as Shanghai Copper and London Copper 3M increased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 119,764, and the position increased by 10,253 [7]. - Inventory and Spread: Copper inventories in some markets increased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spot - to - futures near - month spread of copper increased by 250 [7]. - Industry News: Chile's state - owned Codelco copper company's copper production in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year - on - year; in December 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 98,000 tons; Uganda plans to connect a new railway to Tanzania's railway, which may open up a new export channel for copper [7][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc increased, while that of London Zinc 3M decreased. Trading volumes and positions showed different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 11,090, and the position increased by 4,439 [10]. - Inventory and Spread: Zinc inventories in some markets changed, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between ZN00 - ZN01 increased by 80 [10]. - Industry News: China's Ministry of Commerce will adjust counter - measures against US tariffs as appropriate; the US is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main lead contracts such as Shanghai Lead and London Lead 3M decreased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Lead increased by 8,374, and the position increased by 205 [15]. - Inventory and Spread: Lead inventories in some markets increased, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between PB00 - PB01 increased by 200 [15]. - Industry News: Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday; the US is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries; China's LPR has remained unchanged for nine consecutive months [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main tin contracts such as Shanghai Tin and London Tin 3M increased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased by 103,755, and the position decreased by 7,222 [18]. - Inventory and Spread: Tin inventories in some markets changed, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between LME tin (spot/three - month) increased by 21 [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main contracts of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 119,727, and the position decreased by 14,862 [21]. - Inventory and Spread: Inventories and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy also changed. For example, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 211,000 tons [21]. - Industry News: The Fed warns that monetary policy may not be able to handle the unemployment wave caused by AI; Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and the implementation schedule of the 15% tariff is yet to be determined [23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, that of alumina is 0, and that of aluminum alloy is 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main platinum and palladium contracts increased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Platinum decreased by 2,011, and the position increased by 17 [25]. - Inventory and Spread: Platinum and palladium inventories in some markets remained unchanged, and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 decreased by 0.99 [25]. - Industry News: Takaichi Sanae expressed concerns about further interest rate hikes; the Trump administration will use AI to set reference prices for key minerals; the situation in Iran is tense; the Fed has different views on AI and interest rates [28]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is 0 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of main nickel and stainless - steel contracts showed different trends, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Nickel decreased by 246,471, and the position decreased by 7,222 [29]. - Inventory and Spread: Nickel and stainless - steel inventories and spreads also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the consecutive - first contract of nickel decreased by 450 [29]. - Industry News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses; the Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; some nickel mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines; there are monopoly issues in the port of an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia has approved the 2026 mining work plan and budget; a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; the export volume of Philippine nickel ore may double; there was a landslide in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30][31]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [34].