格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20260225

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the coking coal and coke market is mainly driven by short - position increases, leading to a significant decline in the market. Although it stabilized in the night session yesterday, the downstream resumption of work is relatively slow, while the coal mine production resumed in a timely manner, keeping the supply - demand of coking coal and coke in a loose state. With an important meeting approaching in March, although the policy expectations are relatively low, it provides a certain bottom support for the market. The market should pay attention to policy - related news disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1,101.5 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1,634.5 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Important News - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing an official order to raise the tariff to 15%. The US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security", which may cover large - scale batteries, cast iron and iron accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented independently of the recently announced 15% global tariff measures [1] - In response to the recent US tariff adjustment measures, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that China is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate the relevant US measures, and will decide on counter - measures against the original fentanyl tariff and reciprocal tariffs on the US as appropriate [1] - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, a total of 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation, and the world's largest clean power supply system and clean steel production system have been built [1] 3.3 Market Logic - After the holiday, the coking coal and coke market was mainly driven by short - position increases, causing a sharp decline in the market. It stabilized in the night session yesterday. Fundamentally, the downstream resumption of work is relatively slow after the holiday, while the coal mine production resumed in a timely manner, keeping the supply - demand of coking coal and coke in a loose state. With an important meeting approaching in March, although the policy expectations are relatively low, it provides a certain bottom support for the market. The market should pay attention to policy - related news disturbances [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the short term, the market is regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to whether the support level of 1,060 for the main coking coal contract can be broken [1]