国新国证期货早报-20260225

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 24, 2026 - A-shares had a good start in the Year of the Horse. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 4,117.41, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.36% to 14,291.57, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.99% to 3,308.26. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.2184 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,707.54, a环比 increase of 47.14 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Energy and Chemicals - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1,641.3, a环比 decrease of 38.1. The coking enterprises maintained normal operation, but the inventory increased due to the impact of Spring Festival logistics. The demand from steel mills decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season [2][4]. - The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1,115.5 yuan, a环比 decrease of 18.7. The coking enterprises maintained the previous load, the inventory decreased significantly, and the overall supply - demand pattern was still weak [3][4]. - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated,冲高回落 and closed slightly down. Due to excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India, the sugar production may be lower than expected, which will limit India's exports [4]. - The Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose significantly on February 24. The supply of raw materials decreased as the main producing areas in southern Thailand gradually reduced production in late February and other producing areas entered the off - season. The ANRPC predicted that the natural rubber market would be in short supply in 2026, with demand expected to grow 1.7% to 1.56 million tons and production expected to grow 2.4% to 1.52 million tons [4][5]. - The palm oil futures opened higher on the first trading day after the holiday but ended with a downward oscillation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council predicted that the crude palm oil price in March would fluctuate between 4,000 and 4,300 ringgit per ton (about $1,026 - $1,103). Supply tightness, increased demand from India, and the strong price of US soybean oil would support the price, but the abundant global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports might limit the increase [5]. 2.2. Agricultural Products - The CBOT soybean main contract oscillated and closed up on February 24. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress was 30% as of February 19, behind last year's 39%. In Argentina, rainfall improved the soybean growth conditions. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. After the holiday, oil mills gradually resumed work, and the supply was generally loose [5]. - The main hog contract LH2605 closed at 11,265 yuan/ton on February 24, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous trading day. The supply was abundant due to the concentrated slaughter of large hogs after the holiday and the high inventory of sows. The demand was in the off - season [5]. 2.3. Metals - The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 101,510 yuan/ton, showing a strong oscillation pattern. The market sentiment was supported by the expectation of post - holiday resumption of work and the premium of spot over the main contract. The LME three - month copper decreased slightly by 0.49% [5]. - The iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and decreased by 1.79% on February 24, closing at 740.5 yuan. The iron ore price was expected to oscillate in the short term as the steel mills' resumption of production might drive the demand for raw material replenishment [5]. - The asphalt 2604 main contract oscillated and rose by 1.67% on February 24, closing at 3,348 yuan. The asphalt market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - The log 2605 main contract had a certain performance on February 24. The domestic log spot market was stable before the holiday, and the subsequent price was affected by factors such as spot price, import data, and inventory [6]. - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton at night on February 24. The cotton inventory increased by 12 lots compared with the previous trading day. Some textile enterprises in Anhui resumed work after the holiday, and the cotton planting and production in Brazil might decrease more than expected [6]. - The steel rb2605 closed at 3,027 yuan/ton and hc2605 closed at 3,195 yuan/ton on February 24. The steel price was expected to be weak and stable in the short term due to the weak performance of coking coal and iron ore markets and the low demand from downstream terminals [6]. - The alumina ao2605 closed at 2,829 yuan/ton on February 24. The alumina market was stable, with sufficient supply and smooth logistics [6]. - The Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,635 yuan/ton on February 24. The global macro - environment was neutral to positive, but the seasonal supply - demand imbalance might lead to a high inventory, which would suppress the price [6].