螺纹钢：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡热轧卷板：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and both are in wide-range oscillations [2]. - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - On February 19, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production increased by 1.22 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.05 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 10.69 million tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 129.22 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 69.08 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 269.11 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 60.75 million tons, and for hot-rolled coil decreased by 49.46 million tons, with a total decrease of 153.44 million tons [2]. - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 billion tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.15 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 billion tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output; and 21.3 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 billion tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output [4]. - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 billion tons, a decrease of 1.42 billion tons (8.8%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 0.57 billion tons (4.0%) from the beginning of the year, an increase of 0.57 billion tons (4.0%) from the same ten-day period of the previous month, a decrease of 0.64 billion tons (4.2%) from the same ten-day period of last year, and an increase of 2.51 billion tons (20.6%) from the same ten-day period of the year before last [4]. - In December, the output of medium and heavy plate mills of key enterprises increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, home appliance plates, and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year, while the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for medium and heavy wide steel strips, which increased month-on-month, the prices of other products decreased [4]. - From January to December, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year, while the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [4]. - BHP Billiton announced that its iron ore production in the first half of the year reached a record high, and in the annual contract negotiation with China, the company has accepted a partial reduction in iron ore prices [4]. - According to customs statistics, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons (4.2%); the average price was $1,810.3 per ton, a month-on-month increase of $179.0 (11.0%). From January to December, the cumulative import of steel was 6.059 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 756,000 tons (11.1%) [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (-0.88%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton (-0.87%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 746,349 lots, with a position of 2,034,509 lots and an increase of 92,067 lots; the trading volume of HC2605 was 373,301 lots, with a position of 1,500,880 lots and an increase of 18,657 lots [2]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions decreased to varying degrees, while the price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [2]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of RB2605 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2605 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610 decreased by 5 yuan/ton; the spreads of HC2605 - RB2605, HC2610 - RB2610 increased by 1 yuan/ton; the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -86 yuan/ton [2].