格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - ICE US cotton futures rose driven by tariff benefits, but the uncertainty of trade limited the increase. The main 05 contract settled at 65.56 cents, up 0.6%. Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong and volatile trend due to the expected tight supply in the new year. After the holiday, textile enterprises started work normally, and the spot market for lint cotton was expected to start the post - holiday stocking rhythm. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton broke through the previous high, and it was recommended to maintain a long - position rhythm for the 05 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 617,575, and the open interest was 1,099,390. The settlement prices were 15,090 for May, 15,110 for September, and 15,515 for January. The settlement price of the ICE March contract was 63.56, up 0 points; the May contract was 65.56, up 42 points; the July contract was 67.19, up 37 points, with a trading volume of about 79,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - China's cotton production, consumption, and inventory resource table for this month raised the total demand for this year by 100,000 tons to 8.78 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased to 6.31 million tons. In the new year, the expected output decreased, imports increased, and the total supply decreased; consumption remained stable, and the ending inventory further declined [2] - As of 24:00 on February 9, the national notarized inspection weight of cotton in the 2025 cotton year was 7.4646 million tons. Among them, the inspection weight of Xinjiang cotton was 7.3651 million tons, an increase of 1.0753 million tons year - on - year [2] - On February 9, the US White House issued a bilateral joint statement, stating that the US and Bangladesh officially reached a "Reciprocal Trade Agreement". The US will reduce the reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi - origin goods from 20% set in 2025 to 19% [2] - In January, Bangladesh's clothing export value decreased by 1.35% year - on - year and increased by 11.77% month - on - month. The total clothing export value for the fiscal year decreased by 2.43% year - on - year [2] - As of the week ending February 5, the net signing of US upland cotton for this year was 52,000 tons, and the shipment was 43,000 tons. Among them, the net signing to China was - 12,000 tons, and the shipment was 2,000 tons [2] 3.3 Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rose due to tariff benefits, but trade uncertainty limited the increase. Zhengzhou cotton was strong and volatile due to the expected tight supply in the new year. After the holiday, textile enterprises started work normally, and the spot market for lint cotton was expected to start the post - holiday stocking rhythm [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Maintain a long - position rhythm for the 05 contract [2]